000 AXNT20 KNHC 261013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 613 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 09N21W to 00N22W. The wave is moving W at 15 kt. The wave is located in an area of low wind shear. TPW imagery shows the wave is situated in an area of deep layer moisture. Despite this there is no significant convection currently associated with this wave. A tropical wave located in the W Atlc has an axis extending from 12N49W to 03N52W. The wave is moving W at 20 to 25 kt. The wave is located in an area of moderate wind shear. TPW imagery shows the wave is situated in an area of deep layer moisture. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 10N between 48W and 53W. A tropical wave over the western Atlc has an axis extending from 14N54W to 05N58W. The wave is moving W at 20 kt. Strong wind shear and Saharan dry air enveloping the wave are both inhibiting convection. A tropical wave is passing over the SW Caribbean. The wave has an axis extending from 14N83W across Costa Rica to EPAC waters near 05N83W. The wave is moving W at 20 kt. TPW imagery shows the wave is situated in an area of deep layer moisture. However, strong vertical wind shear is inhibiting the development of convection in the vicinity of this wave, except for in the vicinity of the Monsoon Trough, where numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is seen near Panama from 08N to 11N between 78W and 81W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlc from Guinea Bissau in W Africa near 12N16W and continues to 08N18W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 04N30W to 06N37W to 08N47W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 10N between 16W and 20W and also from 04N to 07N between 31W and 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An area of strong upper-level convergence resides over the Gulf. This area of convergence lies to the W of an upper-level trough extending S along the East Coast to the United States. A weakening warm front extends from the Florida Keys into the SE Gulf to end at 23N86W. The front is expected to dissipate by this evening. Strong subsidence over the gulf is putting the damper on any significant convection over the Gulf as well as the vicinity of the front. Weak high pressure has settled over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of the high. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow has already developed over the Western Gulf ahead of a cold front pushing southward into Texas and Oklahoma. Similar conditions are expected to continue over the Gulf through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is exiting the SW Caribbean. See the tropical waves section for more details on this system. Otherwise, high pressure over the central Atlc ridges SW across the eastern Caribbean Sea. The ridge supports fresh to strong easterly winds across the east and central Caribbean and near gale force winds along the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ESE winds are over the western part of the basin, except for S of 11N, where winds are lighter in the vicinity of the monsoon trough which passes just to the S over the Eastern Pacific. Fresh to near gale winds will persist over the central Caribbean through Friday, then diminish on Saturday. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected over the Gulf of Honduras at night through Monday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Partly cloudy skies and isolated showers will continue over the island under the influence of broad high pressure over the Central Atlc. Model guidance continues to show limited moisture across the region through Sunday evening as upper-level convergence and mid- level subsidence associated with a mid to upper-level ridge extending NE from the Caribbean remains in place. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area over the SW N Atlc near 32N71W. The front extends SW to just N of Grand Bahama Island at 27N78W, then continues as a weakening stationary front to the Florida Keys. A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms is found just NE of the Northern Bahamas along and up to 30 nm SE of the front to the E of 78W. Fresh to strong winds are noted W of the front to the N of 29N. E of the front to 65W winds are fresh to strong N of 27N. A 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N49W currently dominates the remainder of the Central and Western Atlc. A weakening frontal boundary crosses the NE forecast waters from 32N15W to 25N28W to 25N36W. This front will continue to weaken and dissipate by Saturday evening. Three tropical waves are located over the Atlc between 21W and 58W. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy