000 AXNT20 KNHC 260509 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 109 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave that emerged to the west of Africa yesterday has an axis extending from 09N20W to 00N21W. The wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is located in an area of low wind shear. TPW imagery shows the wave is situated in an area of deep layer moisture. Despite this there is no significant convection currently associated with this wave. A tropical wave located in the W Atlc has an axis extending from 11N47W to 03N50W. The wave is moving W 20 to 25 kt. The wave is located in an area of moderate wind shear. TPW imagery shows the wave is situated in an area of deep layer moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 11n between 46W and 50W. A tropical wave over the western Atlc has an axis extending from 14N52W to 04N56W. The wave is moving W at 15 kt. Strong wind shear and Saharan dry air enveloping the wave is inhibiting convection. A tropical wave is over the southwest Caribbean with axis extending from 15N81W across Panama to EPAC waters near 03N80W. The wave is moving W at 15 to 20 kt. TPW imagery shows the wave is situated in an area of deep layer moisture. However, strong vertical wind shear is inhibiting the development of convection in the vicinity of this wave. A tropical wave is moving into SE Mexico from the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala. The wave axis extends from 21N89W into the NE Pacific at 13N92W. The wave has moved W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. Numerous showers and scattered tstms associated with this wave are located inland over Guatemala from 15N to 18N between 89W and 92W. The wave will complete its move into EPAC waters today. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlc from Guinea in W Africa near 12N16W and continues to 06N18W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 04N30W to 07N39W to 07N44W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 02N to 07N between 25W and 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An area of strong upper-level convergence resides over the Gulf. This area of convergence lies to the W of an upper-level trough extending S along the East Coast to the United States. A stalling and weakening frontal boundary crosses the SE Gulf from the Florida Keys to the Northern Yucatan Peninsula. The front is expected to dissipate by Friday evening. Strong subsidence over the gulf is putting the damper on any significant convection over the Gulf and in the vicinity of the front. Weak high pressure has moved over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of the high. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow has already developed over the Western Gulf. Similar conditions are expected to continue over the gulf through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is passing over the SW Caribbean. See the tropical waves section for more details on this system. A weakening frontal boundary is located just NW of the basin from W Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. The front is not expected to provide the focus for any significant convection. Otherwise, high pressure over the central Atlc ridges SW across the eastern Caribbean Sea. The ridge supports fresh to strong easterly winds across the east and central Caribbean and near gale force winds along the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ESE winds are over the western part of the basin, except for S of 11N, where winds are lighter in the vicinity of lower pressure over the Eastern Pacific. Fresh to near gale winds will persist over the central Caribbean through Friday, then diminish on Saturday. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected over the Gulf of Honduras at night through Monday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly dry and hazy conditions will prevail across the island under the influence of the ridge to the NE. Model guidance continues to show limited moisture across the region through Saturday evening as upper-level convergence associated with a ridge extending NE from the Caribbean remains in place. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area over the SW N Atlc near 32N74W. The front extends SW to the Florida Keys and northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. A band of showers and thunderstorms is found just NE of the Northern Bahamas along and up to 60 nm ahead of the front to the E of 78W. Fresh to strong winds are noted W of the front to the N of 29N. E of the front to 65W winds are fresh to strong N of 27N. A 1026 mb high pressure centered near 31N49W currently dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic and central Atlantic. A weakening frontal boundary crosses the NE forecast waters from 32N17W to 26N26W to 26N33W to 23N43W. This front will continue to weaken and dissipate by Saturday evening. Three tropical waves are located over the Atlc between 20W and 56W. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy