000 AXNT20 KNHC 250601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 201 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 13N southward, moving 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 08N to 10N between 33W and 38W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 13N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave that was along 74W/75W from 15N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/86W, from 18N southward across Honduras and Nicaragua, moving westward 10 knots. Convective precipitation: numerous strong in the SW corner of Nicaragua at its border with Costa Rica. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near 09N14W, curving to 06N18W 05N26W and 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N30W to 08N40W 04N52W in French Guiana. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong within 90 nm on either side of 04N10W 09N17W, and from 04N to 07N between 23W and 27W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N to 06N between 16W and 21W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 53W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, thanks to a trough that cuts through the U.S.A. just to the east of the Mississippi River, into the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, to the NW and N of the line that passes through 30N81W 23N87W 25N97W. Multilayered clouds and lingering/weakening precipitation are in the areas that are to the S and SE of the 30N81W 25N97W line. A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the central Gulf of Mexico, toward 21N97W at the coast of Mexico. A surface trough is along 25N86W 22N89W 19N90W in the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... FLORIDA: light rain in the Panama City metropolitan area. Moderate rain in Brooksville. MVFR at the Tampa Executive Airport, and in Sarasota. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through the Mona Passage, to just to the south of Hispaniola, to 15N74W. A shear line continues from 15N74W to Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 19N southward between 73W and 84W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 14N to 20N between 87W and 100W, from Honduras to southern Mexico. Widely scattered moderate in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from Honduras to 20N from 83W westward. The monsoon trough is along 09N80W in Panama, beyond NW Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong between 82W and the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua from 10N to 12N. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N southward from 76W westward. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level W-to-NW wind flow is moving across the area. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will continue across Hispaniola for the next 48 hours. The earlier trough has moved to the east of Hispaniola, bringing with it the NW wind flow on the western side. A ridge will bring more NW wind flow to Hispaniola during day two. The ridge will flatten out a bit, gradually, during day two, and still bringing NW wind flow to the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation center will be on top of Hispaniola for the first 18 hours or so of the overall 48-hour forecast period. The anticyclonic circulation center will move westward, bring NE wind flow to Hispaniola for the rest of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation center will be to the NE of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect SE wind flow for the first 18 hours or so. The anticyclonic circulation center is forecast to move northward, and then become stretched out/elongated as a ridge, along a NE-to-SW oriented line. Expect NE wind flow across Hispaniola for the rest of the forecast period. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through the area that is just to the west of the Madeira Archipelago, to 20N40W and to 13N50W. The trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N23W to 28N30W 26N36W and 21N43W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N22W 28N30W 27N36W 20N50W. A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center that is near 33N44W, to 29N58W, to 24N71W, across Cuba, to 21N82W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT