000 AXNT20 KNHC 241704 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with an axis extending from 12N34W to 03N35W, moving westward at around 20 kt. This wave is embedded in a broad 700 mb trough with TPW data indicating a surge of moisture both northward and southward with the wave passage. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 33W and 37W. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with an axis extending from 11N44W to 03N45W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is at the leading edge of a surge in low to mid level moisture, and has had a notable cyclonic curvature in satellite imagery the past two days. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N to 11N within 180 nm east of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends from the south central Caribbean to S America with an axis from near 15N71W to east Venezuela, to west Colombia. This wave has been trackable utilizing infrared satellite convection patterns over S America the past two days. However, due to dry air and subsidence over the Caribbean, no convection is currently occurring over the discussion waters associated with this wave. A tropical wave over the west Caribbean with an axis extending from 18N82W to 10N83W, moving westward at around 10 kt. This wave has been slowing its forward progression the past couple of days, and is expected to become disrupted over central America through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are S of 13N, west of 80W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 10N14W and continues to 06N22W. The ITCZ begins near 06N22W and extends to 07N33W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N36W to 06N43W, then resumes again west of another tropical wave near 05N46W to 05N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 15W and 22W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ axis between 22W and 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 30N89W to 27N92W to the Mexico coast near 24N98W. A pair of pre-frontal troughs extend from 31N86W to 25N92W, and from 24N95W to 20N97W. Fresh northwest winds are northwest of the front. Moderate northwest winds are between the cold front and pre-frontal troughs. Numerous moderate convection with thunderstorms are within 210 nm southeast of the pre-frontal troughs. Fresh to strong southwest winds are over the northeast Gulf east of the pre-frontal trough. Fresh southerly winds are elsewhere over the southern Gulf. The cold front will move across north Florida tonight and reach from central Florida to the southeast Gulf Thursday morning. The pre-frontal trough will continue east of the front supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms well ahead of the front through tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pair of tropical waves are over the Caribbean. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. The combination of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough and the westernmost tropical wave support thunderstorms over the extreme southwest Caribbean. Otherwise, the Caribbean is void of convection. High pressure over the central Atlantic has a ridge axis that extends west- southwest across the far northern Caribbean supporting fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the central Caribbean and moderate to fresh east to southeast winds elsewhere. Over the next 24 hours a cold front will move over the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Although this front is not expected to reach the northwest Caribbean, showers and thunderstorms well ahead of the front may enter the northwest Caribbean tonight and linger through Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry air and high pressure are supporting tranquil conditions over the area today. Expect this pattern to continue through at least Thursday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front and pre-frontal trough well west of northern Florida is supporting numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms north of 29N, west of 75W with southwest winds of around 20 kt over this same area. A 1025 mb high centered near 33N48W currently dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic and central Atlantic west of 50W with fair weather. A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N28W and extends to 27N34W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 25N40W to 22N46W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm west of the cold front, and within 90 nm of either side of the stationary front. A 1022 mb area of high pressure centered near 27N29W covers the remainder of the eastern Atlantic north of 20N with fair weather. Two tropical waves are over the tropical north Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Over the next 24 hours, winds will increase to near gale force east of north Florida ahead of the cold front. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will spread over the waters east of Florida, including the northwest Bahamas through tonight. The cold front will reach the waters offshore north Florida Thursday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto