000 AXNT20 KNHC 220020 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 12N32W to 03N33W, moving west at 10 kt. Based on current SAL analysis from UW-CIMSS, african dust is N and W of the wave. Scattered showers are confined to the ITCZ. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from 18N65W to N Venezuela near 08N65W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 09N13W and continues to 07N22W. The ITCZ extends from 07N22W to 07N32W, then resumes west of a tropical wave at 07N35W to the coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the coast of western Africa along the monsoon trough from 03N-12N between 12W-16W. Isolated moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 03N-09N between 39W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 21/2100 UTC, A 1021 mb High is located over the W Atlantic near 31N76W. A ridge axis extends W to Lousiana. 10-15 kt SE surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. A quasi-stationary front is inland over S Louisiana, and S Texas with scattered moderate convection extending 60 nm into the Gulf of Mexico. Also, scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf N of 26N between 85W-90W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is inland over central and N Florida. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over Texas. Upper level diffluence is over the N Gulf N of 27N enhancing convection over the N Gulf States. Expect over the next 24 hours for the front to remain inland, thus little change is expected over the Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. Please see above. Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are over the central Caribbean. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean and Central America S of 16N. Scattered showers are over E Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting will combine with available moisture to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 mb high is located over the W Atlantic near 31N76W. A 1016 mb low is located N of the Leeward Islands near 24N60W. A 1025 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 28N24W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered near 25N60W. Upper level diffluence E of the low center is producing scattered moderate convection from 25N-28N between 54W-57W. Expect in 24 hours for a cold front to move into the central Atlantic and extend from 31N44W to 29N54W to 31N62W with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa