000 AXNT20 KNHC 210007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 807 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 12N26W to 03N28W, moving west at 10 kt. Based on current SAL analysis from UW-CIMSS, african dust is N and W of the wave. Isolated moderate convection is confined to the ITCZ. A tropical wave is over the Windward Islands with axis extending from 15N59W to Guyana near 07N60W, moving west at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the wave axis south of 11N, including parts of northern Guyana. The TPW animation shows a surge of moisture along the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the Yucatan Peninsula extending from 21N89W to 12N89W. The wave is moving west at 15 kt. This wave remains embedded within an area of deep layered moisture, especially N of 15N, as depicted in the TPW animation. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 09N13W and continues to 07N19W. The ITCZ extends from 07N19W to 07N26W, then resumes west of a tropical wave at 06N29W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 06N-09N between 16W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb High is located over the W Atlantic near 32N63W. A ridge axis extends W to E Texas. 10-15 kt SE surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is inland over S Texas with convection, moving E. Elsewhere, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf N of 27N, and inland over NW Florida. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over Texas. Upper level diffluence is over the N Gulf N of 27N enhancing convection over the N Gulf States. Expect the cold front to be over the Texas coast in 24 hours with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the Windward Islands and a second tropical wave is over the Yucatan Peninsula. Please see above. A High located near Bermuda combined with a Low over N Colombia is supporting 15-25 kt tradewinds over the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean and Central America S of 16N. Scattered showers are over the N Caribbean N of 16N. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting will combine with available moisture to produce some cloudiness with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates most of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1022 mb high is located near Bermuda while another 1023 mb high is center over the E Atlantic near 29N39W. A surface trough extends N of the Leeward Islands from 24N59W to 18N63W. A recent scatterometer pass shows moderate to fresh SE winds on the east side of the trough axis. This feature is ahead of an upper-level trough that extends from 31N57W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Abundant mid- upper level moisture ahead of this trough is forecast to drift eastward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa