000 AXNT20 KNHC 171129 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 729 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas that are called: AGADIR and CANARIAS. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 18/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence of N or NE near gale or gale in: MADEIRA, AGADIR, CANARIAS, and TARFAYA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 10N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: any precipitation is in the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W from 10N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 06N between 50W and 59W, in the coastal waters and the coastal plains of Brazil, French Guiana, Suriname, and Guyana. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 13N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures and weakening precipitation in Colombia and NW Venezuela from 06N to 11N between Lake Maracaibo and 76W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W, 12N22W, and 09N23W. The ITCZ continues from 09N23W to 05N27W 04N34W and 04N44W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 07N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, ACROSS FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough is digging through 32N52W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 30N56W. A shear line continues from 30N56W, to 29N66W and 28N80W in Florida. The trough continues from Florida, across NW Cuba, into eastern Honduras. A dissipating cold front is along 32N56W to 27N65W. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong, in the Atlantic Ocean, from 20N northward between 40W and 80W. Upper level N wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 90W westward. ...VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... KBBF, KBQX, KEMK, and KVOA: 3 to 5 miles and haze. VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MISSISSIPPI: 1 or less and fog in Hattiesburg. 3 to 5 in McComb. ALABAMA: 1 or less and fog in Evergreen. 3 to 5 and mist in Crestview, Cross City, and Punta Gorda. light rain in the Key West metropolitan area. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in the coastal waters of Haiti. Isolated to widely scattered moderate elsewhere from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the Atlantic Ocean between 67W, just to the north of the Mona Passage and 80W. It has been raining in this area, near Hispaniola and Jamaica and SE Cuba during the last 24 hours. It is possible that more rainfall in this area may reach land more and more in Hispaniola, possibly causing flooding and mudslides. Please pay attention to advisories and bulletins from local meteorology offices and other governmental agencies. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 80W eastward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, moving into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from 26N84W in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, across NW Cuba, to 20N80W and 14N81W. a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 20N83W, to 18N81W and 13N81W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 11N to 16N between 80W and 84W in the coastal waters of Nicaragua. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Numerous strong convective precipitation is from 16N to 19N between 71W and 74W, in southern sections of the island. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in the coastal waters of Haiti. Isolated to widely scattered moderate elsewhere from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the Atlantic Ocean between 67W, just to the north of the Mona Passage and 80W. It has been raining in this area, near Hispaniola and Jamaica and SE Cuba during the last 24 hours. It is possible that more rainfall in this area may reach land more and more in Hispaniola, possibly causing flooding and mudslides. Please pay attention to advisories and bulletins from local meteorology offices and other governmental agencies. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: light rain. MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR with haze. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1500 feet. earlier rain has stopped for the moment. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A N-to-S oriented ridge will be present along 70W. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the first 30 hours to 36 hours. A trough will follow for the next 12 hours or so. 48 hours. Anticyclonic wind flow, from an east- to- west oriented ridge, will span the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an east-to-west oriented ridge, that will reach Hispaniola from the Atlantic Ocean, will send southerly wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. An inverted trough will be on top of the area during the last 6 hours to 12 hours. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge 32N40W to 26N50W 24N60W, and 24N70W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the NW of the Atlantic Ocean cold front. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 32N17W, through 32N21W 25N30W, and 22N40W. 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