000 AXNT20 KNHC 170605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 18/0000 UTC, consists of: N or NE near gale or gale in: MADEIRA, AGADIR, CANARIAS, TARFAYA, AND CAP BLANC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 10N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: any precipitation is in the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 10N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: any precipitation is in the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W from 13N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 08N to 10N between 72W and 77W, and in the Peninsula de la Guajira of N Colombia. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau Sierra Leone near 12N16W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 04N16W 03N26W 03N38W and into NE Brazil near 03N52W. Convective precipitation:scattered moderate to strong from 06N between 50W and 53w in the coastal plains/coastal waters of Brazil, French Guiana, and Suriname, and from 03N to 04N between 13W and 18W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, ACROSS FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough is digging through 32N66W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 30N78W, to 27N82W in Florida, across NW Cuba, into central Honduras. A cold front passes through 32N55W to 30N59W. The front is dissipating cold front 30N59W to 26N71W. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, in the Atlantic Ocean, from 20N northward between 40W and 80W. Upper level N wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 90W westward. ...VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... KBBF, KEMK, and KVOA: 3 to 5 miles and haze. VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MISSISSIPPI: 4 and mist in Pascagoula. FLORIDA: in Milton and in Crestview. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 80W eastward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, moving into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 20N83W, to 18N81W and 13N81W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate between 74W and 83W. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Numerous strong convective precipitation is from 16N to 19N between 71W and 74W, in southern sections of the island. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the northern coastal waters. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona and Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1500 feet. earlier rain and thunder have stopped for the moment. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A N-to-S oriented ridge will be present along 70W. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the first 30 hours to 36 hours. A trough will follow for the next 12 hours or so. 48 hours. Anticyclonic wind flow, from an east- to- west oriented ridge, will span the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an east-to-west oriented ridge, that will reach Hispaniola from the Atlantic Ocean, will send southerly wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. An inverted trough will be on top of the area during the last 6 hours to 12 hours. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge 32N40W to 26N50W 24N60W, and 24N70W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the NW of the Atlantic Ocean cold front. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 32N17W, through 32N21W 25N30W, and 22N40W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT