000 AXNT20 KNHC 161053 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 653 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 10N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: any precipitation is in the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 11N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: any precipitation is in the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from 13N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation: nothing significant. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 13N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation: the wave is moving into the area of the Monsoon Trough. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N southward from 76W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 04N16W 03N26W 03N38W and into NE Brazil near 03N52W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 01N to 05N between 19W and 36W. Isolated moderate from 07N southward from 16W eastward, and from 05N to 07N between 37W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, ACROSS FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough is digging through 32N66W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 30N78W, to 27N82W in Florida, across NW Cuba, into central Honduras. A cold front passes through 32N60W to 31N62W. The front is stationary from 31N62W, to 27N73W. The front is warm from 27N73W, to the NW Bahamas near 27N79W, across south Florida near 26N81W, to 24N85W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is in the easternmost part of the Gulf of Mexico along 83W from 26N to 31N. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, in the Atlantic Ocean, from 20N northward between 40W and 80W. Upper level NW wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, with comparatively drier air in subsidence. VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOUISIANA: 3 to 5 in the coastal plains. 2 miles or less and mist in the SW corner. MISSISSIPPI: 1 or less and mist in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: 1 or less in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: 1 or less at the Tampa Executive Airport. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from northern sections of South America, toward Nicaragua and Honduras, and then toward Cuba/Jamaica, Hispaniola, and beyond Puerto Rico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, moving into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from Andros Island in the Bahamas, across central Cuba to 19N81W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, curving to 15N82W and 12N82W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from Jamaica, across SE Cuba for a bit of time, and into the waters that are between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti, in the Windward Passage. The monsoon trough is along 09N81W in central Panama, NW to southern sections of Honduras and Guatemala. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong inland and in the coastal waters of Central America from Panama to northern sections of Nicaragua. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 16/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are a TRACE in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level SW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Numerous strong convective precipitation is to the west of Hispaniola, between Jamaica and SE Cuba. It is possible that this precipitation may reach Hispaniola, if everything remains intact. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A N-to-S oriented ridge will be present along 70W. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. Anticyclonic wind flow, from an east-to-west oriented ridge, will span the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an east-to-west oriented ridge, that will reach Hispaniola from the Atlantic Ocean, will send southerly wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N29W, to 24N33W, to 17N35W, and 10N42W. A cold front passes through 32N26W to 26N33W. The cold front is dissipating from 26N33W and 22N43W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 90 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N26W 27N34W 22N50W. A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 37N17W, through 32N21W 25N30W, and 22N40W. A second surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 36N39W, through 32N41W, to 26N44W and 24N70W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT