000 AXNT20 KNHC 142356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 756 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A gale is forecast along the coast of Morocco in the region named Agadir tonight. The gale will end Monday morning. Please see the Meteo France marine bulletin under www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the far eastern tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 10N20W to 02N19W, moving westward at about 10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear, divergent flow aloft and moderate low to middle level moisture. This environment is supporting a cluster of moderate convection from 03N to 07N between 19W and 23W. A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 06N39W to 01S39W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, divergent middle level flow and moderate shallow moisture. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 02S between 34W and 42W. A tropical wave has moved into French Guiana, however its axis extends from 09N52W to 0N52W, moving westward at 10 kt. Convection associated with this wave is inland South America. A tropical wave extends from the Central Caribbean near 15N72W to inland Colombia near 05N71W, moving westward at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Dry air subsidence and unfavorable wind shear in the Caribbean inhibit convection in the basin. However, heavy showers and tstms are inland Colombia and Venezuela. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 07N12W to 06N15W. The ITCZ begins near 05N24W and continues to 03N37W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 02N41W to 04N50W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N E of 18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Lingering shallow moisture associated with the passage of a cold front support isolated showers over the Bay of Campeche, Yucatan Channel and the Florida Straits. A ridge has build across the basin in the wake of the front, which is being anchored by a 1018 mb high over southern Tennessee. Gentle to light N-NE winds are E of 90W while NE-E winds dominate the western part of the basin. The center of high pressure will move to mid-Atlc waters early on Tuesday resulting in return flow for the Gulf beyond the middle of the week. However, winds will increase to fresh to strong Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of a developing area of low pressure in the southern plains. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak cold front moved off the SE Gulf of Mexico to the NW Caribbean waters. The front extends from western Cuba near 22N82W SW to the NE Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W and supports scattered to isolated showers and tstms within 90 nm either side of the boundary, including Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. To the SE, a pre-frontal trough extends from 19N79W to Nicaragua adjacent waters near 12N82W. The trough is under an upper level diffluent environment that along with abundant low to middle level moisture support heavy showers and tstms across Jamaica and adjacent waters from 15N to 20N between 75W and 80W. Scattered showers and tstms are elsewhere within 90 nm either side of the trough axis S of 16N. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean, however it lacks convection. See the tropical waves section for further details. Otherwise, moderate to gentle trades are basin- wide. Showers will continue across Jamaica and vicinity and will extend to eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage on Monday. The passage of the cold front will support showers across Hispaniola Monday night through Tuesday. HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are occurring in the Windward Passage and Haiti associated with a surface trough west of Jamaica. A cold front west of the trough will move across Cuba tonight and Monday, and across Hispaniola Tuesday. This will lead to a progressive increase in the amount and areal coverage of showers across the Island starting tonight and continuing through the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Mainly supported by a middle level trough, a weak cold front extends from 30N71W SW across the northern Bahamas to the NW coast of Cuba near 23N81W. Isolated showers and tstms associated with the front are in the Great Bahama Bank and the Florida Straits. In the central Atlc, a second weak cold front extends from 30N36W to 25N49W lacking convection. The remainder basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb center of high pressure near 24N55W, which will move NE off the area of discussion within the next 24 hours. Otherwise, three tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical waves section above for details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos