000 AXNT20 KNHC 141739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 139 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A gale is forecast along the coast of Morocco in the region named Agadir this afternoon and tonight. The gale will end Monday morning. Please see the Meteo France marine bulletin under www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the far eastern tropical Atlantic with an axis extending from 10N18W to 01N18W, moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave has a well defined satellite signature, and is accompanied by a large surge of tropical moisture. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of either side of the wave axis. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis from 10N35W to 00N36W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The northern portion of the wave is difficult to locate in satellite imagery due to dry air. However, a peak in low to mid level moisture is noted in TPW imagery as well as cyclonic curvature in satellite imagery along the southern portion of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm of either side of the wave axis, S of 05N. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with an axis extending from 10N48W to 00N50W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. It is difficult to locate this wave on satellite imagery, with a peak in low to mid level moisture noted in TPW data. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N to 06N, within 180 nm west of the wave axis, including just inland over S. America. A tropical wave extends from the Central Caribbean near 17N69W to Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Dry air over the Caribbean is limiting convection over that portion of the wave. However, the thunderstorm activity over Venezuela makes this wave trackable with satellite imagery. This wave is at the leading edge of an increase in low to mid level moisture. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 14N17W to 10N19W to 06N24W. The ITCZ begins near 06N24W and continues to 04N34W, then resumes east of a tropical wave near 02N38W to 03N49W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm S of the monsoon trough, and within 210 nm of either side of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from south Florida near Marco Island, to 24N85W, then transitions to a stationary front to 21N94W. A pre- frontal trough extends from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel. Scattered thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the trough axis. High pressure north of the front supports mainly moderate northerly winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate east to southeast winds over the western Gulf. Over the next 24 hours, the front will dissipate across the southern Gulf. High pressure will build over the northeastern Gulf and southeastern United States. Scattered thunderstorms will remain likely in the unstable airmass south of the weakening front through tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is developing over the western Caribbean south of 20N along about 81W, and is supporting scattered moderate convection within 90 nm of a line from 19N78W to 13N82W. A pre- frontal trough extends from the western tip of Cuba to near 20N86W supporting numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms within 60 nm of the trough axis. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean void of convection. Please see the tropical waves section for details. Mainly moderate trades cover the Caribbean, except fresh near convection. Over the next 24 hours the two surface troughs over the west and northwest Caribbean will merge and continue to support showers and thunderstorms. HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will mainly occur in the higher terrain this afternoon, diminishing around sunset. Expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage Monday as moisture increases over the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical waves section above for details. A cold front is over the SW N Atlantic and extends over the area of discussion from 31N75W to south Florida. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are within 210 nm southeast of the front. A weak surface trough extends from 31N79W to 29N82W supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms. A nearly stationary weak area of high pressure of 1019 mb is centered near 24N60W. Another cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N31W and extends to 28N45W to 25N53W and is then dissipating stationary to 25N58W. No significant convection is noted with this front. High pressure centered near 34N14W dominates the remainder of the eastern Atlantic, and will support gale conditions near the Morocco coast through tonight. Please see the special features section for more details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto