000
AXNT20 KNHC 131728
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 32N.  The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has moved off the west coast of Africa with the 
axis extending along 14W from 02N to 10N and is moving west 
about 20 knots.  Strong convection is located within a 120 
nautical miles radius of 04N14.5W. 

A tropical wave has entered the far eastern Caribbean with the 
axis extending along 62W south of 14N into South America and is 
moving westward at about 10 kt.  No significant convection is 
associated with the wave.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 10N16W 
and extends to 04N24W.  The ITCZ begins near 04N24W and 
continues to 03N34W to 08N55W.  Scattered moderate/strong 
convection is located from 02N to 05N between 21W and 28W and 
within a 90 nautical mile radius of 07N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate westerly zonal winds aloft covers the entire Gulf early 
this afternoon with speeds in the 55 to 70 knot range.  A 
middle/upper level trough is forecast to move into the western 
Gulf on Sunday and into the middle Gulf on Monday.  A cold front 
is positioned from the far western Florida Panhandle to 25N90W 
to the Mexican coast at 22N.  The front is easily identifiable 
on the latest visible satellite imagery and ship and buoy 
observations.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Flow aloft is generally anticyclonic over the western third of 
the basin with strong subsidence over the eastern two-thirds of 
the discussion area as depicted in water vapor imagery.  As 
mentioned above a tropical wave has entered the far eastern 
Caribbean.  Scatterometer passes depict gentle to moderate 
trades across the basin. 

HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island except for increased 
cloudiness over the mountainous areas of the western Dominican 
Republic.  A surface high...1017 mb...is centered northeast of 
the island. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad middle/upper level ridge is located over the western 
Atlantic west of about 67W.  In the west central Atlantic a 
middle/upper level trough has its axis extending through 32N55W 
to 20N62W and is moving east 15 to 20 knots.  An associated cold 
front extends through 32N51W to 27N66W and continues north as a 
stationary front through 32N72W.  A pre-frontal trough is 
located from 31N46W to 20N56W.  A strong jet lies from near the 
base of the trough near 18N57W to 26N50W to beyond 32N41W with 
winds in the 70 to 80 knot range.  Overcast middle/high level 
clouds lie up to 10 degrees east of the jet.  Moving downstream 
a middle/upper level ridge has its axis along 33W/34W north of 
18N.  Finally, a middle/upper level trough is located along the 
coast of Africa north of about 22N.  A 1017 mb high is centered 
near 23N65W and is moving east northeast.  A 1023 mb surface 
high is centered near 29N30W and is moving rapidly northeast.   

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

CAB