000 AXNT20 KNHC 130604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 13N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 11N southward between 51W and 57W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 16N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Upper level SW wind flow is cutting across the area of this tropical wave. Convective precipitation: numerous strong in Guyana and Venezuela from 04N to 07N between 59W and 63W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 10N18W and 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 05N23W to 03N30W 06N41W and 04N51W at the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to strong from 05N southward between 19W and 34W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 08N between 42W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough is digging through Louisiana and the northern half of the Texas Gulf coast. The trough is supporting a cold front that passes through SE Louisiana, into the NE Gulf of Mexico, to the NE coastal Mexico near 24N98W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 28N in the water northward between the Florida west coast and 88W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from Mexico to Central America, within 210 nm of the coastlines, from Honduras to 26N in Mexico. Upper level SW wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. This SW wind flow is on the western side of a ridge, that is along 78W. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 50W WESTWARD, INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N58W, to 24N60W, into the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea near 15N64W, into northern Venezuela. A cold front is passint through 32N57W to 27N66W, and 29N69W. A stationary front continues from 29N69W to 32N73W. A warm front continues from 32N73W to a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 34N76W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 200 nm to 600 nm to the SE and S of the line 30N54W 24N60W 21N70W 20N84W. Most of the comparatively drier air is in the Caribbean Sea, and the area in which the drier air is about 600 nm to the SE and S of the line. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 30 nm to the east of the line that passes through 32N55W 29N57W 27N62W. Rainshowers are possible within 600 nm to the east of the line that passes through 32N51W 26N52W 19N57W 10N62W. The Monsoon Trough is along 11N72W 12N83W beyond 11N86W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N southward from 72W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 13/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.34 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible inland and in the coastal waters. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. scattered cumulonimbus clouds. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana:VFR. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the first 36 hours to 42 hours. W wind flow and SW wind flow are forecast, at the end of the 48-hour forecast period. An anticyclonic circulation center is forecast to move to the E and eventually toward the SE, from the east central coast of Nicaragua toward the Netherlands Antilles. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that a ridge is forecast to move from the eastern half of Cuba, across Hispaniola, and eventually more eastward into the Atlantic Ocean. Anticyclonic wind flow will move across Hispaniola during the first 24 hours. SW wind flow will move across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area during the first 12 hours or so. SW and S wind flow will follow for about the next 24 hours or so. More anticyclonic wind flow will continue until the end of the 48-hour forecast period. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 16N northward between Africa and 30W. An upper level trough passes through 32N15W to 27N19W to 17N26W. Broad surface cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 28N northward between Africa and 30W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N42W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 14N northward from 62W eastward. A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 34N06W, to 30N19W, to a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 28N35W, to 22N48W and 21N63W, to a 1016 mb high pressure center that is near 24N72W, to 24N86W in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT