000 AXNT20 KNHC 122341 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 741 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the Atlantic with axis extending from 12N52W to 00N51W, moving westward at 15 kt. Abundant moisture prevails in this wave's environment, as noted in TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the wave axis south of 07N. A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 15N61W to 03N63W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Abundant moisture prevails along and to the east of the axis, as noted in TPW imagery. Scattered light to moderate convection prevails south of 09N between 60W-65W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 10N14W and extends to 05N20W. The ITCZ begins near 05N20W and continues to 03N34W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N- 07N between 24W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is just off the coast of Texas from 30N93W to 27N97W. To the east, a squall line extends from 30N89W to 29N91W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the squall line affecting the waters north of 28N. A 1016 mb high is centered east of the Bahamas near 23N70W extends a ridge axis west across the Gulf waters. Scatterometer data depicts moderate northerly winds north of the front while a light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to continue moving southeast and extend from Northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave has entered the east Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. A 1016 mb surface high centered east of the Bahamas near 23N71W extends across the remainder of the basin. To the south, the monsoon trough extends along 11N between 75W-84W supporting isolated moderate convection mainly south of 14N. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave and the monsoon trough to continue to produce showers and convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. A surface high is centered just north of the island. With this, strong subsidence prevails over the island. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. A 1016 mb high is centered east of the Bahamas near 23N71W. To the north, a cold front is just entered the west Atlantic extending from a 1004 mb low near 32N62W to 29N67W to 31N73W. Scattered showers are observed along the front. An upper-level trough extends across the west central Atlantic with axis along 62W. A diffluent flow prevails east of the trough supporting cloudiness and scattered showers north of 10N between 50W-60W. A 1021 mb surface high is centered near 27N38W and dominates the remainder of the basin. Expect for the front in the west-central Atlantic to become stationary with showers. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA