000 AXNT20 KNHC 121119 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 719 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 11N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 10N southward between 40W and 50W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W from 14N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Upper level SW wind flow is cutting across the area of this tropical wave. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N southward between 57W and 60W. An inland tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 11N southward, from the Lake Maracaibo area in Venezuela into Colombia, moving westward 15 knots. The northern part of this wave is moving through an area of an upper level trough. Convective precipitation: the numerous strong from 6 hours ago has weakened and dissipated. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 04N to 09N between 69W and 76W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 04N20W, to 03N33W and 02N44W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 03N to 07N between 12W and 17W, leaving from Africa, and from 01N to 06N between 27W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge passes through the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from a 1016 mb high pressure center that is near 27N84W, toward the upper Texas Gulf coast. ...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, and KXIH: 1 to 3 miles and mist. KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KHQI, KEIR, and KSPR: 3 to 5 miles and mist. KVOA: 3 to 5 miles and haze. VISIBILITY IN MILES AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: 3 to 5 miles with mist in the coastal plains. as low as 1/4 mile and 1/2 mile from Hebbronville and Falfurrias southward into the Deep South, and from Alice to the NAS Kingsville and Corpus Christi. LOUISIANA: heavy rainshowers and thunder in the Lake Charles metropolitan area. MISSISSIPPI: rainshowers and thunder in Natchez. ALABAMA: 3 to 5 miles and mist from Evergreen to Dothan, and slightly lower visibilities in some areas. FLORIDA: Crestview: 1 mile and mist. from Marianna to Tallahassee to Perry: 1 mile or less/mist and fog. the Tampa Executive Airport: 3 to 5/mist. Punta Gorda: 3 to 5 and fog. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 50W WESTWARD, INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N65W, to 29N67W. A second middle level to upper level trough is along 28N61W, to 23N64W, across Puerto Rico, into NW Venezuela. A surface trough is along 23N62W to 16N63W. A stationary front passes through 32N52W to 30N55W, to 25N61W. A surface trough extends from 23N61W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the islands of the NE Caribbean Sea, to 15N63W in the Caribbean Sea. A second frontal system is related to a 990 mb low pressure center that is near 40N57W. A cold front reaches 32N57W. The front is stationary from 32N57W to 32N63W, to 1002 mb low pressure center that is near 33N69W. A cold front extends from the 1002 mb 33N69W low pressure center beyond 32N72W. Convective precipitation in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean: scattered moderate to strong from from 19N to 21N between 54W and 55W. Rainshowers are possible in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward, between 48W and 65W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. The Monsoon Trough is along 09N75W 09N80W beyond 10N86W in NW Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 12N southward between 75W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 12/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.60 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow, and some cyclonic wind flow, are moving across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in Hispaniola. A surface trough extends from 23N61W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the islands of the NE Caribbean Sea, to 15N63W in the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible inland and in the coastal waters. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. scattered towering cumulus clouds. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. Hispaniola will be on the western side of a trough, that will move eastward with time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow, with a NE-to-SW oriented trough, will move across the area during the first 30 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, to follow the cyclonic wind flow. Southerly wind flow will move across Hispaniola at the end of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow, with a NE-to-SW oriented trough, will cover the area for the first 12 hours or so. Cyclonic wind flow will cover the W side of the island, while SW wind flow will cover the E half of the island. Broad southerly wind flow, with some brief anticyclonic wind flow, will be present for the rest of day one. SW wind flow will move across the area during the last 24 hours, with an E-to-W oriented ridge. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 28N northward between Africa and 30W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N42W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 13N northward from 55W eastward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward between 67W and 80W. A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 23N75W just off the central Bahamas. 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