000 AXNT20 KNHC 120602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 12N47W 06N49W, southward along 49W, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 04N southward between 40W and 50W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 14N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Upper level SW wind flow is cutting across the area of this tropical wave. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 15N southward between 50W and 60W. An inland tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 11N southward, from the Lake Maracaibo area in Venezuela into Colombia, moving westward 15 knots. The northern part of this wave is moving through an area of an upper level trough. Convective precipitation: numerous strong in Colombia and Venezuela from 07N to 10N between 71W and Lake Maracaibo, and 76W in Colombia. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 06N17W and 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 04N32W 03N39W 02N43W, and 03N47W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 03N to 10N between 10W and 14W, leaving from Africa. Scattered moderate to strong from 02N to 05N between 27W and 38W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle to the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from a 1016 mb high pressure center that is near 27N85W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... KMZG, KBBF, and KBQX: 1 to 3 miles and mist. KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, and KHQI: 3 to 5 miles and mist. KVOA: 2 to 3 miles and haze. VISIBILITY IN MILES AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: Victoria and Port Lavaca: 5/mist. Bay City: 3/mist. LOUISIANA: parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area:5/haze. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 50W WESTWARD, INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N60W, to 24N65W, through the Mona Passage, into NW Venezuela. A surface trough is along 23N62W 21N65W, to Puerto Rico. A stationary front passes through 32N53W to 25N61W. A surface trough extends from 23N61W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the islands of the NE Caribbean Sea, to 15N63W in the Caribbean Sea. A second frontal system is related to a 992 mb low pressure center that is near 40N58W. A cold front passes through 32N55W to 31N59W. A stationary front continues from 31N59W beyond 32N66W. Convective precipitation in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean: scattered moderate to strong from 15N to 21N between 54W and 58W. Rainshowers are possible from 10N northward, between 50W and 63W. Rainshowers are possible in the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. The Monsoon Trough is along 08N/09N from 78W in Colombia westward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N southward from 75W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 12/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.60 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow, and some cyclonic wind flow, are moving across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in Hispaniola. A surface trough extends from 23N61W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the islands of the NE Caribbean Sea, to 15N63W in the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible inland and in the coastal waters. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. scattered cumulonimbus clouds. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: rain and thunder at 12/0000 UTC. Santo Domingo: MVFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. Hispaniola will be on the western side of a trough, that will move eastward with time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow, with a NE-to-SW oriented trough, will move across the area during the first 30 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, to follow the cyclonic wind flow. Southerly wind flow will move across Hispaniola at the end of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow, with a NE-to-SW oriented trough, will cover the area for the first 12 hours or so. Cyclonic wind flow will cover the W side of the island, while SW wind flow will cover the E half of the island. Broad southerly wind flow, with some brief anticyclonic wind flow, will be present for the rest of day one. SW wind flow will move across the area during the last 24 hours, with an E-to-W oriented ridge. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 28N northward between Africa and 30W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 28N42W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 13N northward from 55W eastward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward between 67W and 80W. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 25N75W just off the central Bahamas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT