000 AXNT20 KNHC 111119 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 718 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W, from 10N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, from 02N to 07N between 30W and 36W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 11N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Upper level SW wind flow is cutting across the area of this tropical wave. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N to 11N between 54W and 58W. An inland tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 11N southward, inland in Venezuela and Colombia, moving westward 15 knots. The northern part of this wave is moving through an area of an upper level trough. Convective precipitation: numerous strong in Venezuela from 06N to 08N between 64W and 66W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N14W and 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 04N31W 01N40W, and 01N45W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 01N to 05N between 43W and 49W. scattered strong within 30 nm on either side of 06N38W 04N43W, and from 02N southward between 42W and 44W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge is along 92W/93W in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from a 1019 mb high pressure center is near 28N85W into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... KMZG, KBBF, and KBQX: 1 to 3 miles and mist. KXIH and KHHV: 3 to 5 miles and mist. KVOA: 4 miles and haze. VISIBILITY IN MILES AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: Hebbronville, Falfurrias, Victoria, and Jasper: 3 to 5/ haze. LOUISIANA: Slidell: 1 mile or less/mist. NAS New Orleans: 5 miles/mist. FLORIDA: Milton: 4 miles/mist. Crestview: 1/4 and fog. Marianna: 3/4 and mist. Apalachicola: 1-2/mist. Perry and Cross City: 5/mist. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 50W WESTWARD, INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through Bermuda, to 25N67W, through Mona and Puerto Rico, beyond northern Venezuela. A surface trough is along 23N62W 21N65W, to Puerto Rico. A cold front passes through 32N55W to 27N61W. The cold front is dissipating from 27N61W to 24N64W. A cold front/stationary front is along 31N/32N between Bermuda and 74W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 18N to 22N between 60W and 64W. isolated moderate within 360 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N42W 24N55W 14N68W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 16N northward between 70W and 80W, and from 16N southward between from 60W westward. Isolated moderate from 11N southward from 77W westward. The Monsoon Trough is along 10N/11N between 73W in Colombia and beyond northern Costa Rica. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 11/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.59 in Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow, is on the western side of the trough that is reaching the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in Hispaniola. A surface trough is along 24N62W 21N65W, to Puerto Rico. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible inland and in the coastal waters. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will move across the area. Hispaniola will be on the western side of a trough. The trough will continue to move eastward during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow will move across the area during the first 24 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect NW wind flow to follow the cyclonic wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow will cover the area for the first 30 hours. Broad southerly wind flow, with some brief anticyclonic wind flow, will be present for the rest of the forecast period. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N15W to 26N24W and 19N38W. Broad surface cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 30N northward between Africa and 30W. A surface ridge passes through 34N05W to 27N13W 22N23W, to a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 27N44W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 15N northward from 55W eastward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward between 70W and 80W. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 26N77W in the NW Bahamas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT