000 AXNT20 KNHC 101733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 133 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlc with an axis extending from 09N29W to 01N30W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave can be tracked back to its exit off the African coast a couple of days ago in infrared satellite imagery, and also continues to be well defined in wave diagnostic model fields. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of either side of the wave axis south of 07N. A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with an axis extending from 12N51W to 01N52W, moving westward at nearly 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is at the leading edge of a deep surge of moisture, with an inverted trough apparent in 700 mb model fields. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm of either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends from the extreme southern Caribbean near 11N64W and over Venezuela, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. This wave shows up in 700 mb model fields. However, due to dry air, no convection is noted. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 15N17W and extends to 07N20W. The ITCZ begins near 07N20W and continues to 04N28W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 03N32W and continues to 01N40W to 04N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 10N between 10W and 20W, and within 240 nm N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ axis W of 38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... An area of high pressure of 1019 mb is centered over the northeastern Gulf near 28N87W, supporting light to gentle winds over the northeastern Gulf, moderate southeast winds over the southeastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh southeasterly winds over the western Gulf. A convection free surface trough is over the southwestern Gulf extending from 23N94W to the coast of Mexico near 18N94W. A brief northeast wind shift is associated with this trough. Dry air and subsidence dominates the Gulf today, with no convection noted. Over the next 24 hours a cold front may clip the northeastern Gulf with showers and thunderstorms. A thermal trough will produce strong winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight. Otherwise, little change is expected. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally fair weather dominates the northwest and central Caribbean, with easterly winds 13 to 18 kt. The eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough crosses Panama near 10N84W and extends to the Colombia coast near 10N75W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of either side of the trough axis. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the trough. Moderate easterly winds are north of the trough. A mid to upper level trough over the northeastern Caribbean supports a surface trough that extends from the western Atlantic to Puerto Rico to 16N67W. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 17N, east of 67W, with scattered showers and thunderstorms elsewhere north of 15N and east of 72W. Moderate to fresh northeasterly winds cover the Caribbean east of 72W. Moderate easterly winds cover the southeast Caribbean. Little change is forecast over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Under the presence of a mid to upper level trough, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing in the daytime heating. Expect these showers and thunderstorms to diminish after sunset. Drier conditions are expected on Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 mb area of high pressure centered near 28N76W dominates the southwestern north Atlantic with fair weather. Light to gentle winds are north of 25N, west of 65W. Mainly moderate northeast winds are south of 25N and west of 65W. An upper trough along 65W from 31N to the northeastern Caribbean supports a pair of surface troughs. The westernmost trough extends from 22N65W to Puerto Rico. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this trough axis. The easternmost trough extends from 23N58W to 18N61W and is interacting with the upper trough to support numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms within 240 nm southeast of a line from 27N56W to 16N62W. A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N58W and extends to 28N61W. Moderate convection is within 90 nm east of the front. A 1021 mb high centered near 27N46W dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours expect showers and thunderstorms to continue with the easternmost surface trough and the upper trough, as well as with the cold front. Another cold front will clip our northern discussion waters of the central Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto