000 AXNT20 KNHC 101107 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 707 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 09N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, with the ITCZ, from 04N southward between 30W and 36W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 10N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Upper level SW wind flow is cutting across the area of this tropical wave. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N southward between 42W and 52W, and from 04N to 08N between 42W and 47W. An inland tropical wave is along 62W/63W from 10N southward, inland in Venezuela and Brazil, moving westward 15 knots. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W to 10N21W. The ITCZ continues from 10N21W to 06N23W 05N26W, and 02N47W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 06N to 11N between 11W and 16W. It is possible that this precipitation may be accompanying the next tropical wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 04N between 06W and 21W. Isolated moderate to locally strong, elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge is along 93W/94W in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from a 1019 mb high pressure center is near 28N87W into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... KBBF: 3 miles and haze. KVOA: 4 miles and haze. VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: Edinburg 1 mile with mist and haze. light rain in Victoria. LOUISIANA: 3 to 5 miles with mist in Galliano and Slidell. MISSISSIPPI: Pascagoula: the visibilities have been as low as 1/2 mile with fog and mist during the early morning hours of today. ALABAMA: Gulf Shores: the visibilities have been as low as 1/2 mile with fog and mist during the early morning hours of today. Evergreen: 5 miles and mist. FLORIDA: Mary Esther/Valparaiso/ Destin: 1 to 2 miles with mist during the early morning hours of today. The visibilities have been as low as 1/4 of a mile during the early morning hours of today from Apalachicola to the NW part of the Panama City metropolitan area. Punta Gorda: 3 miles and fog. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 55W WESTWARD, INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N61W, to 25N62W, to the Puerto Rico, toward Trinidad. A surface trough is along 22N59W 19N60W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 15N to 16N between 62W and 63W, and within a 30 nm radius of 32N58W. Isolated moderate elsewhere within 150 nm on either side of the line, from 14N64W in the Caribbean Sea, to 22N58W and 27N54W in the Atlantic Ocean, beyond 32N49W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 13N southward from 75W westward. Other possible rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea, to the SW of the line that runs from the Yucatan Channel to 14N67W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 10/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.30 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, is moving away from the area. The trough now is mostly across Puerto Rico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in Hispaniola. A surface trough is along 66W/67W from 16N to 21N, across Puerto Rico. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will move across the area. Hispaniola will be on the western side of a trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow will move across the area during the first 6 hours to 12 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect NW wind flow to follow the cyclonic wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge will cover Hispaniola for the first 6 hours or so. Cyclonic wind flow with a NE-to-SW oriented trough, will cover the area during the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N24W, to 27N26W and 22N42W, to 15N54W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery within 420 nm on either side of 27N32W 23N41W 16N49W 10N52W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 13N northward from 60W eastward. A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 29N50W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 68W westward. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 30N74W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT