000 AXNT20 KNHC 091115 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 715 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W from 12N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Upper level SW wind flow is cutting across the area of this tropical wave. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 12N southward between 37W and 44W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 11N southward, moving westward 15 knots. This wave is moving through the area of an upper level trough. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N southward between 50W and 58W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 15N17W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to the Equator along 27W, to 02S37W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 07N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge is along 92W/93W in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 28N87W. A ridge extends from the 1018 mb high center into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... 2 to 3 miles and haze: KBBF, KVOA, and KVKY. VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: Edinburg has been reporting light rain and fog, and visibilities as low as 1/4 of a mile, off and on, since 09/0700 utc. Louisiana: Galliano reported mist and a visibility of 1/4 of a mile during the last hour; generally 3 to 5 miles and mist. Slidell has reported a visibility as low as 1/2 a mile with fog during the last hour. Hammond: 5 miles and mist. MISSISSIPPI: Pascagoula has been reporting visibilities of 1 mile or less since 09/0540 UTC with fog and mist. ALABAMA: 1 to 3 miles and sometimes 1 mile or less, with fog and mist, since 09/0600 UTC. Mobile has been reporting 1 to 3 miles and mist during the last few hours. FLORIDA: 3 miles and fog in Pensacola and Panama City. Perry has reported visibilities as low as 1/2 of a mile with fog during the early morning hours of today. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 65W WESTWARD, INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N70W, to the Windward Passage. The trough continues from the Windward Passage to 12N70W in the south central Caribbean Sea. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from the eastern Pacific Ocean, across Central America, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A cold front passes through 32N72W to 31N75W. A surface trough is along 31N75W to 28N79W. A second cold front passes through 32N61W to 31N62W. A stationary front continues from 31N62W to 27N67W and 21N70W. A surface trough is moving through the Caribbean Sea, and parts of the Atlantic Ocean, along 68W from 14N to 22N. Convective precipitation in the Caribbean Sea: isolated to widely scattered strong in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 10N southward from 79W eastward to land. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in scattered to broken low level clouds, from 83W eastward. Convective precipitation in the Atlantic Ocean: rainshowers are possible within 240 nm to 300 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N56W, to 25N61W and 20N64W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.22 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area. An upper level trough is in the Windward Passage, just to the west of Hispaniola. Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal waters. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: nearby rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow will move across the area during the first 12 hours or so. Expect NW wind flow during the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that broad cyclonic wind flow will move across the area during the first 24 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect NW wind flow during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that variable wind directions will be covering Hispaniola for the first 6 hours to 12 hours of day one. Anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge will cover the area for the rest of day one. Day two will consist of a trough across the northern half of the island, and an anticyclonic circulation center covering the southern half of the island. NW wind flow will last for about 6 hours or so. The last 6 hours to 12 hours will be covered with cyclonic wind flow and a trough. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N33W, to 26N40W and 20N46W, to 14N52W and 07N54W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 26N southward between 40W and 60W. Broken to overcast high level clouds are within 240 nm to 300 nm on either side of the line 26N15W 23N30W 15N37W 10N42W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 30N northward from 30W eastward. A cold front passes through 32N14W to the Canary Islands near 27N18W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 30N northward between 10W and 20W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward between 20W and 60W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 30N52W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT