000 AXNT20 KNHC 081719 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 119 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 09N35W to 04S37W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Cyclonic curvature is noted in infrared satellite imagery and model fields between 32W-39W. SSMI total precipitable water imagery depicts the wave well. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the axis N of 00N. A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 11N52W to 01S53W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave has become less well defined over the past 24 hours. However, some signature remains in infrared satellite imagery and in model fields. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 12N16W and extends to 07N16W. The ITCZ begins near 07N16W and continues to 01N30W to 02N35W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 00N38W and extends to the South American coast near 02S45W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 01N-08N between 18W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb surface high remains centered over the northeast Gulf near 28N87W, supporting 10-15 kt anticyclonic flow. 15-20 kt SE flow is over the W Gulf with strongest winds along the Texas coast. Fair weather dominates the E Gulf, while broken upper level high clouds over S Texas and the NW Gulf. Over the next 24 hours, the surface high will move N to S Mississippi. Expect scattered showers to be along the S Texas and the NE Mexico coasts, due to onshore return flow. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a stationary front extends from the S Bahamas to E Cuba near 20N75W. A prefrontal trough extends from the Turks and Caicos Islands to central Hispaniola. Scattered showers are over the E Caribbean between 62W-74W. A surface trough is over the SW Caribbean from 15N82W to 09N82W. Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-14N between 75W-84W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is inland over NW Venezuela. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Caribbean with axis along 75W. Upper level diffluence E of the trough axis is enhancing the showers over the E Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of showers over the E Caribbean, and SW Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are presently over the island due mostly to prefrontal activity. Enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity will persist for the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slow moving cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to the S Bahamas near 22N72W. Scattered moderate convection is E of front to 60W, N of 23N. Scattered showers are within 240 nm E of the remainder of the front. A 1023 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 32N54W. A quasi-stationary front is over the E Atlantic from 31N21W to 22N37W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Expect over the next 24 hours for the W Atlantic front to move slowly E with convection, while the E Atlantic front dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa