000 AXNT20 KNHC 081031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 631 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 09N33W to 04S34W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Mid-level cyclonic curvature is noted in infrared satellite imagery and model fields between 30W and 36W. Scattered moderate convection is along and near the wave axis between 32W-36W. A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 10N51W to 00N51W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave has become less well defined over the past 24 hours. However, some signature remains in infrared satellite imagery and in model fields. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 14N17W and extends to 12N19W. The ITCZ begins near 05N21W and continues to 02N32W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 00N36W and extends to 00N48W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to strong convection prevails east of 23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb surface high remains centered over the northeast Gulf near 27N87W, supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow over the basin. Fair weather also dominates the Gulf under this area of high pressure. A thermal trough extends over the Bay of Campeche from 22N92W to 19N93W. Fresh winds are depicted in scatterometer data near this trough. Over the next 24 hours, the high will drift toward the northeast. Winds will increase to fresh over the southwestern Gulf again tonight as the thermal trough moves westward off the Yucatan peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to 17N83W. Scattered showers are observed along and within 200 nm east of the front affecting the northern Caribbean north of 17N between 70W-76W. To the south, a surface trough extends from 18N79W to 14N80W. This trough, combined with the proximity of the Monsoon Trough that extends along 10N and between 76W-82W, supports isolated moderate convection south of 14N. The eastern Caribbean is void of deep convection due in part to subsidence from a mid to upper-level ridge. Mainly moderate east to northeast winds cover the basin at this time, with the exception of the southwest Caribbean where light winds prevail south of 10N. During the next 24 hours, the stationary front will dissipate. Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the southwestern Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are affecting the northwestern portion of the island as the stationary front remains to the west of the area. This enhanced coverage of showers will continue through this morning, becoming lesser in coverage by late afternoon as the front weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is entering the area of discussion from 31N73W to 29N81W. This front has no significant shower activity. A stationary front enters the area of discussion near 31N66W and extends to 21N75W. A surface trough developed overnight just north of the Windward Passage extending from 23N70W to 20N73W. Numerous showers are within 150 nm on either side of the front and trough. Farther east, a stationary front enters the area of discussion near 31N21W and extends to 25N30W to 23N47W. No convection is noted with this front. Fresh northerly winds prevail north of the front with seas increasing to 8 to 12 ft. Two tropical waves were analyzed across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. High pressure centered over the north central Atlantic dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic. During the next 24 hours, all the fronts will begin to dissipate. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA