000 AXNT20 KNHC 051805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A strong cold front is moving through the Atlantic Ocean near 32N80W, across Florida near 29N82W, across the easternmost part of the Gulf of Mexico from 27N82W to the NE part of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 18N93W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. NW winds 20 knots to 30 knots, with frequent gusts to 35 knots, and sea heights ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet, are to the N of 28N to the west of the front to 89W. Please read the latest National Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... The 6-hour forecast consists of cold front, from 31N78W to 28N80.5W. Expect SW-to-W winds 20 knots to 30 knots, with frequent gusts to 35 knots, and sea heights reaching 10 feet, to the N of 29N to the W of the front. Please read the latest National Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W, to 05N12W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 01N20W, to the Equator along 29W, and to the Equator along 42W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 01N to 03N from 02W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere to the south of 10N from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD, ACROSS FLORIDA, AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A vigorous upper level trough is passing through Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, into the central part of the Gulf of Mexico. The trough is pushing a strong cold front through the Atlantic Ocean near 32N80W, across Florida near 29N82W, across the easternmost part of the Gulf of Mexico from 27N82W to the NE part of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 18N93W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface trough extends from the Yucatan Channel near 22N86W, into the coastal waters of Belize, the Gulf of Honduras, and western sections of Honduras. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N77W to 27N79W to 20N85W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 16N northward from 80W westward. Surface high pressure is pushing southward, through the Deep South of Texas, to 19N96W in southern Mexico. ...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... KVOA: 5 and haze; and KVKY: 3 and haze. VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... FLORIDA: light rain has ended for the moment in Apalachicola. 1 mile or less and haze in Tallahassee. light rain and 4 miles in Marathon Key. rain has ended for the moment in the Key West metropolitan area. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 75W westward. The anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and Central America. Middle level-to-upper level W-to-NW wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea. A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 25N67W, across the SE Bahamas and Cuba, to 19N83W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 71W eastward, and from 17N northward between the Windward Passage and 80W, around Jamaica and Cuba. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 04/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.02 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, and a TRACE in Trinidad and Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow Is moving across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb and for 500 mb shows that broad anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area with a ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that S wind flow will move across the island. An anticyclonic circulation center will be to the east of Hispaniola. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N28W to 26N38W, to a 23N47W cyclonic circulation center, to 16N52W, to 12N60W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 32N northward from 20W eastward. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in scattered to broken low level clouds drom 20N northward between Africa and 70W. A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 32N51W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 12N northward between Africa and 72W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT