000 AXNT20 KNHC 050602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough crosses the western African coast near 08N13W and extends to 04N17W, where the ITCZ begins and then continues along 02N34W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05S to 05N west of 16W. Otherwise, a cluster of heavy showers and isolated tstms is off the coast of Liberia, Africa from 01 to 06N between 09W and 14W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front is moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico from 30N84W to 22N90W with tail extending southwest to the Bay of Campeche near 19N96W. Mostly shallow moisture ahead of the front support scattered to isolated showers east of the boundary, including the northern and central Florida Peninsula, the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Heavier showers along with isolated tstms are in the Yucatan channel being enhanced by a surface pre-frontal trough that extends from 22N85W to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to near gale force winds are between the front and 96W with the strongest winds being in the NE gulf as indicated by the latest scatterometer pass. Please read the latest National Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. The front will move off the southeast gulf Friday night, leaving the basin with a weak ridge over the weekend. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Except for the far northwest Caribbean Sea, the basin is very quiet this morning. In the NW basin, a surface trough extends from 22N85W to the Gulf of Honduras, which is supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms W of 83W, including the Yucatan channel. Latest scatterometer data indicate fresh to near gale force winds off the NE Yucatan Peninsula and in the Yucatan channel. Numerous heavy showers and tstms are in Belize, Guatemala and western Honduras being supported by a diffluent environment aloft. Showers will prevail in this region as a cold moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico enters the basin early Saturday morning. Weak middle level troughiness prevails near Hispaniola, which along shallow moisture continue to support cloudiness with possible isolated showers in the north-central portion of the island. Water vapor imagery show dry air subsidence elsewhere, thus supporting fair weather. Latest scatterometer data show mainly moderate trades across the region, except for fresh winds off the coast of northern Colombia S of 14N and in the Gulf of Honduras. ...HISPANIOLA... Weak middle level troughiness prevails near Hispaniola, which along shallow moisture continue to support cloudiness with possible isolated showers in the north-central portion of the island. Skies are expected to clear out later this morning, however a moist airmass moving S of Puerto Rico is expected to reach the island Friday night and showers are forecast to develop mainly across the central Island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface high pressure dominates across most of the basin being anchored by a 1026 mb high near 31N51W, which provides stable and fair weather conditions. Otherwise, a broad middle level low north of the area continue to support a weakening cold front past the Canary Islands from 30N11W to 21N21W. A new cold front is forecast to come off NE Florida later this morning and move over the northern and central Bahamas Saturday where it will stall before starting to weaken. Showers, high winds to near gale force and seas to 12 ft are expected for the SW N Atlc waters associated with this front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos