000 AXNT20 KNHC 041752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 152 PM EDT Thu May 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong cold front is moving through the Gulf of Mexico at this time. A line of precipitation and gale-force winds accompany the cold front. The position of the cold front is: 30N91W 23N98W. Expect NW winds 20 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to gale-force, and sea heights reaching 8 feet, to the west of the cold front. The gale-force winds are forecast to continue for the next 12 hours or so. Please read the latest National Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 01N33W, to the Equator along 36W, and to the Equator along 40W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A vigorous upper level trough is pushing a strong cold front through the Gulf of Mexico at the moment. The cold front cuts through SE Louisiana, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 27N93W, to the coast of Mexico near 24N, and then northwestward across northern Mexico, beyond the SW corner of New Mexico, into Arizona. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong within 250 nm to the west and northwest of the line that passes through Florida near 29N83W, to 25N87W, beyond 20N96W at the coast of Mexico. ...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... no obstructions to visibility/no precipitation. VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MISSISSIPPI: rain just ended in parts of the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. FLORIDA: light rain in Apalachicola and Tallahassee. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from Central America into and across the Caribbean Sea, from 20N southward. Upper level NW wind flow covers the far NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 22N65W, across the Greater Antilles, to 19N84W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: weakening and dissipating precipitation covers the SW corner of the area, from 12N southward from 79W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 04/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.07 in Trinidad, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow, from a trough, is moving across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. few towering cumulus clouds. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the first 30 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge for the rest of the time period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow will cover the area during day one. Expect anticyclonic wind flow during day two, with a ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that S wind flow will move across the island. An anticyclonic circulation center will be to the south of Puerto Rico during the next 48 hours. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level-to-upper level trough is along 29N73W, to central Hispaniola. A stationary front passes through 32N69W to 29N77W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 24N northward between 65W and 76W. A middle level-to-upper level trough extends from a 26N48W cyclonic circulation center, to 18N54W, toward NE Venezuela and Trinidad. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. A deep-layer trough is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, passing through the Madeira Archipelago, to the Cabo Verde Islands, to 11N26W. A cold front passes through 32N13W, to the Canary Islands, 23N24W, and 20N31W. The cold front is dissipating from 20N31W and 20N42W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the line that passes through 32N11W 26N15W 20N31W 20N60W. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 32N54W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N northward between 26W and 70W, and away from the eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT