000 AXNT20 KNHC 032347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 747 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A strong cold front will be entering the NW Gulf of Mexico by early morning Thursday. Gale-force winds are expected to develop along the Tamaulipas coast north of Tampico in the morning, then spread southward toward Veracruz during the afternoon hours. The cold front will continue to move southeast Thursday through early Saturday. High pressure building over eastern Mexico behind the front will weaken thereafter allowing the gale winds to subside by Thursday night. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough crosses the western African coast near 11N15W and extends to 05N20W, where the ITCZ begins and extends to 04N35W to the South American coast near 00N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection from 04N-09N between 17W-24W. Isolated moderate convection is N of the ITCZ from 03N-07N between 36W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across southern Louisiana to near 29N87W supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 28N between 87W-93W. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has 10-20 kt southerly return flow. A weak surface trough is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N89W to 18N91W lacking convection. Winds become variable near this trough axis. A strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf tonight with 25 kt N winds N of the front. Gale force winds will later develop north of the front over the western gulf. Please see the special features section for more details. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is presently over the SW Caribbean S of 12N to include Panama, Costa Rica, and S Nicaragua. Scattered showers are over Honduras, S Guatemala, E Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands. In the upper levels, a small upper level high is centered over the SW Caribbean near 11N81W. A small upper level trough is over the E Caribbean E of 70W with axis along 60W. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough axis is producing showers in the Atlantic E of the Windward Islands. Little change is forecast over the next 24 hours. By Saturday, a weakening cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers remain over the island especially over the higher terrain. Expect afternoon and evening thunderstorms during maximum heating Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends over the western Atlantic from 31N72W to the N Bahamas at 26N79W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of either side of the front. A surface trough extends over the central Bahamas from 27N76W to 22N77W supporting scattered showers from 24N-27N between 71W-77W. A 1026 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 31N53W. A cold front enters the E Atlantic near 31N19W and extends to 24N30W to 23N44W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 23N58W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of either side of the front. Over the next 24 hours the front over the western Atlantic will dissipate, while eastern Atlantic cold front moves E to the Canary Islands with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa