000 AXNT20 KNHC 031715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 115 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A strong cold front will be entering the NW Gulf of Mexico by early morning Thursday. Gale-force winds are expected to develop along the Tamaulipas coast north of Tampico in the morning, then spread southward toward Veracruz during the afternoon hours. The cold front will continue to move southeast Thursday through early Saturday. High pressure building over eastern Mexico behind the front will weaken thereafter allowing the gale winds to subside by Thursday night. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough crosses the western African coast near 11N15W and extends to 03N25W, where the ITCZ begins and extends to 04N35W to 02N52W. Scattered moderate to strong convection are south of 08N, east of 20W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough axis west of 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across southern Louisiana to near 29N88W supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms along and north of the frontal boundary. High pressure over Georgia and low pressure over Texas support fresh to strong southerly flow over the western Gulf and moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the majority of the remainder of the gulf. A weak surface trough lacking convection extends from 27N83W to 24N86W. Winds become variable near this trough axis. A strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf tonight. Gale force winds will develop north of the front over the western gulf. Please see the special features section for more details. CARIBBEAN SEA... The combination of a surface trough extending across Panama, and upper level diffluence supports scattered moderate convection south of a line from 14N84W to 10N75W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be found in patches of moisture over the central and eastern Caribbean. The remainder of the Caribbean is free of convection. Gentle to moderate easterly winds cover the northwestern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterlies are elsewhere, except light south of the surface trough over the southwest Caribbean. Little change is forecast over the next 24 hours. By Saturday, a weakening cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over the terrain will diminish around sunset. Scattered showers will remain over the coastal sections overnight. Expect a similar weather pattern for Thursday and Thursday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends over the western Atlantic from 31N75W to 28N78W to 25N80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 45 nm of either side of the front. A surface trough extends from 26N77W to 21N75W supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 23N to 26N between 72W and 78W. A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N22W and extends to 26N28W to 24N38W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 23N45W to 23N57W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of either side of the front. A 1026 mb area of high pressure centered near 31N52W dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours the front over the western Atlantic will dissipate. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto