000 AXNT20 KNHC 022345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 745 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... An unusually strong cold front for this late in Spring will be entering the NW Gulf of Mexico by early Thursday. Gale-force winds are expected to develop along the Tamaulipas coast north of Tampico, then spread southward toward Veracruz during the afternoon hours. The cold front will continue moving southeast on Thursday night and Friday. High pressure building over eastern Mexico behind the front will begin to weaken and shift eastward, allowing the gale winds to subside. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough remains over the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 06N15W to 05N34W to 03N55W. Isolated showers are observed along the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 27N83W to 26N86W. A weak surface trough was depicted in observations from 26N83W to 23N84W. Isolated showers are observed along these boundaries. A surface ridge, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered over the Florida Panhandle, prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate northerly winds mainly north of the front and east of 90W while light to gentle easterly winds prevail elsewhere. The surface high will shift northeastward this evening as the cold front stalls and dissipates. SEA southeast return flow will prevail across the Gulf in advance of the next cold front, which is expected to arrive on the Texas coast by early Thursday. Gale-force winds will develop behind the front in the southwest Gulf. Please refer to the section above for more information. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered over the central Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin mainly east of 80W, while light to gentle easterlies prevail west of 80W. An upper-level trough with base over southeastern Caribbean is supporting cloudiness and isolated showers over portions of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Leeward and Windward Islands as well as their adjacent waters. This pattern is expected to continue through the next 24-48 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are occurring across the island and the adjacent waters. This activity is due to the presence of an upper-level trough extending southward over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 68W. The showers are forecast to continue through this evening as the upper-level trough lingers in the area. The showers are expected to taper off by Thursday as the trough weakens and drifts eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N78W to 28N80W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the front affecting the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters. To the east, an upper-level trough is reflected at the surface as a trough that extends northwest of Hispaniola from 24N74W to 21N73W. Cloudiness and isolated showers are in the vicinity of this trough prevailing between 63W- 75W. A cold front extends from 31N28W to 23N54W, then becomes weak from that point to 23N60W. Isolated showers prevail along the front. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad area of high pressure centered by a 1024 mb high near 32N56W. Expect for the cold front over the west Atlantic to begin weakening and dissipate during the next 24-48 hours. The surface trough north of Hispaniola will move slowly west and weaken through Thursday as it loses its upper-level support. The front in the east Atlantic will keep moving east while weakening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA