000 AXNT20 KNHC 021702 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 102 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... An unusually strong cold front for this late in Spring will be entering the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning. A strong barrier jet is expected to form along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental as the front drives southward. Gale force winds are expected to develop along the Tamaulipas coast N of Tampico...then spread southward toward Veracruz during the afternoon. The cold front will head SE on Thursday night and Friday. High pressure building over eastern Mexico behind the front will begin to weaken and shift eastward, allowing the gales to subside. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough curves SW from the Guinea Bissau coast of Africa near 12N16W to 08N16W to 05N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 05N20W to 02N36W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 08N between 13W and 17W. Scattered moderate convection is found within 60 nm either side of a line from 04N27W to 04N34W to 02N50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends NE from 26N86W to the Florida coast near Tampa. A dissipating warm front continues SW from the cold front to end over the western Gulf near 24N95W. A weak surface trough heads SSW from just SW of Tampa to Western Cuba. Weak low pressure is centered over the Bay of Campeche near 22N94W. Broad ridging and upper-level convergence aloft are inhibiting convection in the vicinity of all of these features. Weak high pressure is centered behind the front over the FL panhandle. Surface observations and satellite-derived wind data show light to moderate winds generally prevail across the Gulf. The high will shift northeastward this afternoon as the cold front stalls and weakens and the warm front dissipates. As the high moves NE it will set the stage for increasing SE return flow across the Gulf in advance of the next cold front, which is expected to arrive on the Texas coast early on Thursday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Low pressure moving eastward from the United States mainland is weakening the ridge to the N of the Caribbean. Moderate trades prevail over the Caribbean, except along the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela, where winds are fresh to locally strong in response to low pressure over Northern Venezuela. This general pattern will persist for the next day or so as the high remains weakened in response to the low moving toward the Canadian Maritimes. An upper-level trough curves SW from Hispaniola to Panama. Upper- level convergence W of the trough is limiting convection over the Caribbean, except for near Hispaniola, where daytime heating and colder air aloft are combining to produce Showers and thunderstorms over and just south of the Dominican Republic. This relatively dry pattern is forecast to continue through Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across the Dominican Republic and the adjacent waters to the south of the island. The convection is due to the presence of an upper- level trough extending southward over the Dominican Republic from a low centered near the southern Bahamas. The showers are forecast to continue through this evening as the upper level low/trough linger in the area. The showers are expected to taper off by Thursday as the trough weakens and moves slowly eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad ridging covers the SW N Atlantic and is centered near 31N57W. A mid to upper-level low centered just N of the southern Bahamas has induced a surface trough from the Windward Passage to the Southern Bahamas. An area of cloudiness, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the trough is affecting the Turks and Caicos islands as well as the Southern Bahamas from 21N to 25N between 69W and 75W. A cold front extends SW from 32N30W to 27N43W to 25N49W, then continues as a weakening cold front to 23N58W. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic is dominated by ridging extending eastward from 24N44W to W of Africa near 24N18W. Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are occurring along a cold front which extends NE from coast of Florida near cape Canaveral to 32N78W. The front will struggle to reach the northernmost Bahamas on Wed, but will stall and dissipate before it does so. The surface trough extending northward from the Windward Passage to the southern Bahamas will move slowly west and weaken through Thursday as it loses its upper-level support. The convection accompanying the trough will decrease accordingly. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy