000 AXNT20 KNHC 020931 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 531 AM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N18W to 02N31W to the coast of Brazil near 01S50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06S to 06N between 18W and 54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low NE of Wisconsin is lifting N-NE with associated trough extending S to over the NE Gulf. This is providing limited support for a weakening cold front that as of 0600 UTC extends from northern Florida near 28N83W to 26N85W where it becomes stationary through 24N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 21N94W. Diffluent flow aloft and shallow moisture ahead of the front support scattered to isolated showers N of 26N E of the front, including northern and central Florida. A weak surface ridge is behind the front anchored by a 1017 mb high SE of Louisiana near 28N89W, which is expected to move to NE waters this afternoon as the cold front moves across central Florida. However, the stationary portion of the front will start to lift back and become a warm front early Wednesday morning, ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW basin Wednesday night. Surface observations showed light to moderate anticyclonic winds across the northern Gulf behind the front and light variable flow elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... Showers and tstms over S Cuba adjacent waters have diminished. A middle to upper level low N of the southern Bahamas has an associated trough that extends S-SW into the central Caribbean. This trough support cloudiness across Hispaniola and adjacent waters as well as isolated showers mainly in the Dominican Republic. Multi-layered clouds are observed over the SE basin with possible isolated showers across the Windward Islands and adjacent waters. Water vapor imagery show dry air subsidence across the remainder basin, thus supporting fair weather. Strong high pressure over the SW N Atlc leads to the continuation of fresh to strong winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate trades are elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are occurring across the Dominican Republic and Hispaniola's adjacent waters due to a middle to upper-level low centered north of the southern Bahamas. This shower activity is forecast to continue through early Wednesday morning as the upper level low/trough prevails in the region and a surface trough develops across the Island later today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A vast anticyclone and ridging covers most of the SW N Atlantic with the main anticyclone centered near 32N59W. A mid to upper- level low centered N of the southern Bahamas is producing abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the area south of 25N between 66W and 73W. In the central Atlc, a middle to upper level trough N of 30N continue to support a weakening cold front that extends from 30N38W to 24N54W where it starts to dissipate. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered between northern Portugal and Spain. Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are off the NE coast of Florida associated with a weak cold front that is entering the SW N Atlc waters this morning. This front will push to northern Bahamas adjacent waters Wed night where it will stall and then dissipate Thursday. Fresh to strong winds are ahead of this cold front and are expected to continue through Tuesday evening. A surface trough will develop over Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas this afternoon and then move west through Thursday with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos