000 AXNT20 KNHC 020524 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 124 AM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 07N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N18W to 01N32W to the coast of Brazil near 01S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06S to 05N between 23W and 49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper-level low centered over northern Wisconsin is lifting N-NE with associated trough extending S to over the NE Gulf. This is providing limited support for a weakening cold front that as of 0300 UTC extends from northern Florida near 29N83W to 25N87W where it becomes stationary through 24N91W to the Bay of Campeche near 21N94W. Diffluent flow aloft and shallow moisture ahead of the front support scattered to isolated showers N of 27N E of the front, including northern and portions of central Florida. A surface trough is ahead of the front in the Yucatan Peninsula. A weak surface ridge is behind the front anchored over the Louisiana, which is expected to move over NE waters Tuesday afternoon as the cold front moves across central Florida. However, the stationary portion of the front will start to lift back and become a warm front early Wednesday morning, ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW basin Wednesday night. Surface observations showed light to moderate anticyclonic winds across the northern Gulf behind the front and light variable flow elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... Diffluent flow generated by a middle anticyclone centered N of Honduras and a cyclonic circulation centered just E of the Turks and Caicos along with shallow moisture support scattered showers and tstms over S Cuba adjacent waters N of 20N. The low aloft over the SW N Atlc has an associated trough that extends S-SW into the central Caribbean. This trough support cloudiness across the NE Caribbean as well as scattered to isolated showers mainly in the Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage. Multi-layered clouds are observed over the SE basin with possible isolated showers across the Windward Islands and adjacent waters. Water vapor imagery show dry air subsidence across the remainder basin, thus supporting fair weather. Strong high pressure over the SW N Atlc leads to the continuation of fresh to strong winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate trades are elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered to isolated showers are occurring across the Dominican Republic and northeastward over the adjacent Atlantic Ocean due to a middle to upper-level low centered just east of the Turks and Caicos. This shower activity is forecast to continue through early Wednesday morning as the upper level low/trough prevails and a surface trough develops across the Island Tuesday afternoon. Localized heavy rainfall and flooding are possible. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A vast anticyclone and ridging covers most of the SW N Atlantic with the main anticyclone centered near 32N60W. A mid to upper- level low centered near the Turks and Caicos is producing abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the area south of 25N between 66W and 72W. In the central Atlc, a middle to upper level trough N of 30N continue to support a weakening cold front that extends from 30N39W to 26N51W where it starts to dissipate. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered off the coast of N Portugal. Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are off the NE coast of Florida associated with a weak cold front that will be entering the SW N Atlc waters later this morning. This front will push to northern Bahamas adjacent waters Wed night when it will stall and dissipate Thursday. Fresh to strong winds are ahead of this cold front and are expected to continue through Tuesday evening. A surface trough will develop over Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas this afternoon and then move west through Thursday with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos