000 AXNT20 KNHC 011744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 144 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough remains over Africa. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N17W to 02N37W to 06N57W. A surface trough is analyzed from 06N25W to 02N26W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06S-03N between 25W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper-level low centered over the Mississippi River valley supports a cold front that extends from 30N87W to 24N92W, then becomes stationary from that point to 19N93W. Scattered moderate convection is along and east of the front mainly north of 24N between 84W-91W. A 1011 mb surface low is to the east of the stationary front near 19N91W. A surface trough extends from the low to 22N90W. A surface ridge prevails to the west of the fronts, anchored by 1018 mb high near 22N98W and a 1016 mb high near 29N94W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the fronts while moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail east of the fronts. The cold front is expected to drift east during the next 24 hours. Winds will weaken slightly before increasing again as another area of low pressure develops across Texas and moves northeast across the lower Mississippi River valley by the second half of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the Caribbean basin is under the influence of dry and relatively stable northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of an upper-level anticyclone centered east of Nicaragua near 12N83W. Over the northeast Caribbean, a mid to upper-level low centered north of Hispaniola is producing abundant cloudiness and scattered showers affecting the area north of 16N and east of 70W. A surface trough extends across the EPAC to near Costa Rica and supports isolated moderate convection south of 12N between 75W- 82W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for the upper-level low to reflect at the surface as a trough that will extend over Hispaniola and move west across the west Atlantic through Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently, scattered showers are occurring across eastern portions of the island and the adjacent coastal waters generally east of 70W. This activity is due to a middle to upper-level low focused in the vicinity of 23N70W. Expect during the next 24 hours for this low to reflect at the surface as a trough that will extend over the island and move west across the west Atlantic through Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Much of the west Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered southwest of Bermuda near 30N67W. A mid to upper-level low centered north of Hispaniola is producing abundant cloudiness and scattered showers affecting the area south of 24N between 65W-71W. Farther east, a middle to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic supports a cold front that dips to 31N53W. Isolated showers are possible across this area as the front continues to approach 30N. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered north of the area near 39N11W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the upper-level low to reflect at the surface as a trough that will extend over Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas and move west across the west Atlantic through Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA