000 AXNT20 KNHC 011016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 616 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the Africa coast near 11N15W to 07N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N18W to 02N25W to the Equator near 31W. A surface trough is analyzed from 01N25W to 05N24W and likely very weak energy that propagated off of western Africa during the middle of last week. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is S of 05N between 21W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A vigorous middle to upper level low centered over the mid- Mississippi River valley supports a cold front extending from southern Mississippi near 30N89W to 25N92W to 21N94W. S of 27N west of the front...moderate to fresh northerly winds are occurring and will continue on a gradually diminishing trend through Monday night. To the east of the front...primarily gentle to moderate S-SE winds prevail. Most ongoing convection is associated with a squall line extending from the western Florida panhandle to the cold front near 28N90W. The northern portion of the cold front will continue sweeping eastward while the southern extent will begin to stall today into Tuesday. High pressure will build in behind the front across the western Gulf supporting moderate to occasional fresh E-NE winds through mid-week. Otherwise by Tuesday night...moderate E-SE winds will increase to fresh levels across the western waters into Wednesday as an area of low pressure develops across Texas and moves E-NE across the lower Mississippi River valley the second half of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the Caribbean basin is under the influence of dry and relatively stable NW flow aloft on the eastern periphery of an upper level anticyclone centered over western Nicaragua near 13N87W. However...middle to upper level troughing is noted in the vicinity of 21N69W N of Hispaniola. This troughing is generating area of widely scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 16N between 61W-70W. The troughing aloft is expected to remain nearly stationary N of Hispaniola through Tuesday night and then weaken and shift N as the aforementioned ridging moves eastward over western portions of the basin. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail and are expected to persist through Tuesday night as high pressure remains anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc region. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across eastern portions of the island and the adjacent coastal waters generally E of 70W. This activity is due in large part to a middle to upper level trough focused in the vicinity of 21N69W. The troughing aloft is expected to remain nearly stationary through Tuesday night with higher probability of precipitation and convection remaining in the forecast through early Wednesday until the upper level feature is expected to move northward and weaken. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Much of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered W of Bermuda near 32N68W. One exception to the ridge is an area of widely scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring S of 24N between 63W-71W in association with an middle to upper level trough noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 21N69W. This feature is expected to remain nearly stationary through Tuesday night and then gradually weaken into Wednesday. Cloudiness and probability of precipitation and convection are forecast to increase for the Turks and Caicos...along with portions of the SE Bahamas the next few days. Farther east...a middle to upper level trough over the central North Atlc supports a cold front that dips to 32N55W. Pre- frontal troughing associated with the approaching front extends across an area N of 28N between 45W-62W. Isolated showers are possible across this area as the front continues to approach 30N. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 32N24W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN