000 AXNT20 KNHC 301049 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 649 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The 6-hour forecast: a cold front from 29.5N93W to 21N98W. S of 24N W of front: NW to N winds 25 to 35 knots and sea heights reaching 8 feet. Please read the latest National Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 01/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence or threat of a SW near gale or severe gale in IRVING. The threat of N or NE near gale or gale in AGADIR. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W to 08N14W. A surface trough is along 18W/19W from 08N southward. The ITCZ is along 03N21W, to the Equator along 30W, to the Equator along 44W. Another branch of the ITCZ is along 05N40W 04N45W 03N49W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 04N southward between 32W and 44W, and from 06N southward between 49W and 53W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge passes through NE Florida, to 26N83W, and beyond the NE Yucatan Peninsula. is along 83W/84W. High level moisture is within 300 nm to 360 nm to the west and NW of the line that passes through 32N77W 26N80W 23N81W, and then from 23N southward from 96W eastward. A deep layer cyclonic circulation center is moving through the Texas Panhandle. It supports a cold front that is passing through east Texas, along the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast, into the Deep South of Texas, and beyond, into NE Mexico. A pre-frontal trough is within 30 nm to 60 nm to the ESE of the cold front from 25N to 29N. convective precipitation: numerous strong has been moving from the middle Texas coastal plains northeastward, during the late night and early morning hours. Numerous strong now is concentrated in Louisiana and its coastal waters, from 29N northward between 90W and 94W. A 1000 mb low pressure center is in Mexico near 24N98W. A surface trough extends from the low center to 19N97W. A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 32N67W, beyond South Carolina. ...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... Mist and haze, with 1 to 3 miles at many of the platform sites, and some smaller areas of 3 to 5 miles, except for the platforms that are in the Texas coastal waters. VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: light rain in Beaumont/Port Arthur. LOUISIANA: rainshowers and thunder, some heavy at times in the SW corner of the state. MISSISSIPPI: rainshowers and thunder in Natchez. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Cuba, toward an upper level trough, whose cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A middle level-to-upper level 22N70W cyclonic circulation center is spreading broad cyclonic wind flow across the area from 75W eastward. Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate from 14N in the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 56W and 72W. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from 17N to 20N between 72W and 82W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 30N southward between 60W and 80W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward between 60W and 70W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 30/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.50 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... A middle level-to-upper level 22N70W cyclonic circulation center is spreading broad cyclonic wind flow across the island. Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate from 14N in the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 56W and 72W. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, inland and in the rest of the coastal waters, from 17N to 20N between 72W and 82W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet. Punta Cana: VFR. earlier light rain has ended for the moment. Santiago: VFR. earlier light rain has ended for the moment. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet. earlier rain has ended for the moment. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the first 36 hours. Expect cyclonic wind flow with a trough for the rest of the time period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that broad cyclonic wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow will be associated with an inverted trough, across the entire area. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N44W, to 25N49W, and 19N54W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 16N northward between 40W and 60W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N15W. A trough extends from the cyclonic center toward the Cabo Verde Islands. A 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 22N24W. onvective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, scattered to broken low level clouds, to the NW of the line that passes through 32N09W 20N20W 13N30W 14N40W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 08N northward between 30W and 80W. A surface ridge is along 33N15W, to a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 32N36W, to a 1026 mb that is near 32N36W, beyond South Carolina. 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