000 AXNT20 KNHC 271710 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 110 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-force winds are forecast for the METEO-FRANCE area that is called IRVING and METEOR until 28/1200 UTC. For more details, please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM /PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends SW from the coast of western Africa near 11N15W to 04N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 04N20W to 04N35W to the coast of South America near 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of either side of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 30N88W to 27N92W to 25N97W. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are north of the front. No convection is currently associated with the front over the Gulf. A surface trough is over the southwestern Gulf extending from 25N95W to 20N96W. Moderate northwest winds are west of the trough. Moderate south to southwest winds are within 120 nm east of the trough. A ridge extending from high pressure over the Atlantic supports mainly moderate southerly winds over the remainder of the Gulf basin this afternoon. Over the next 24 hours the front will gradually dissipate. Strong southerly flow will then develop over the western Gulf by Friday afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure well northeast of the Caribbean basin and lower pressures over South America support moderate to fresh trade winds over the Caribbean today. Locally strong winds are occurring near the coast of northeast Colombia and the northern coast of Honduras. An upper trough supports showers and thunderstorms north of Jamaica, between 73W and 80W. Dry air and subsidence are limiting convection across the remainder of the Caribbean. Over the next 24 hours the showers and thunderstorms will increase over the southwestern Caribbean in response to low level convergence across the area. Otherwise, little change is expected. ...HISPANIOLA... Low level moisture and daytime heating is supporting terrain induced showers over the area today. An upper trough northeast of the area will move toward the region tonight, enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity across the area tonight through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A coastal trough extends from 31N79W to 28N80W supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. An upper trough over the Bahamas supports clusters of thunderstorms from 20N to 25N between 72W and 76W with an outflow boundary moving southeastward that as of 1500 UTC extended from 23N73W to 22N74W to 21N77W. Winds become NW and increase to 30 kt northwest of this boundary. High pressure centered over the north central Atlantic dominates the remainder of the western and central Atlantic. A 1008 mb low centered near 33N25W supports gale force winds just north of our area. Please see the special features section for more details. A pair of troughs extend south from this low. The westernmost trough extends from 31N25W to 28N28W to 29N36W. The easternmost trough extends from 31N24W to 28N23W. Scattered to numerous showers are north of 26N between 21W and 29W. Indications are that a low amplitude tropical wave may have exited African Coast in the past 24 hours and currently extends along 18N. This wave will likely lose its characteristics the next couple of days. Over the next 24 hours showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish over the bahamas and surrounding waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto