000 AXNT20 KNHC 262341 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 741 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of western Africa near 10N14W to 05N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 05N17W to the coast of South America near 00N50W. Clusters of moderate convection are from 01N to 07N between 10W and 20W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the low pressure system over eastern Texas supports fresh to strong southerly winds over the western and central Gulf waters mainly west of 88W while moderate southerly winds prevail east of 88W. A surface trough extends across the Texas/north Mexico coast from 28N97W to 21N98W. Fair weather prevails across the basin at this time. Expect during the next 12 to 18 hours for a cold front to enter the northwest Gulf with convection. The front will stall across the north-central Gulf and weaken. Winds will increase across the western Gulf to briefly fresh and northerly behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure well northeast of the Caribbean basin and lower pressures over South America support mainly moderate east to southeast winds over the Caribbean. Locally fresh to strong winds are occurring near the coast of northern Colombia, and the northern coasts of Venezuela and Honduras. Dry air and subsidence are limiting convection to just some patches of showers in the trade wind flow primarily over the north central and eastern Caribbean. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Low-level moisture and daytime heating are supporting terrain- induced showers over the area. Expect for this activity to diminish by sunset, but a few quick-passing showers in the trade wind flow will continue affecting the island tonight. This pattern is expected to repeat itself on Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging dominates the majority of the basin anchored by a 1038 mb high centered near 45N47W. A surface trough extends from 30N67W to 27N68W with no significant convection. Another trough, previously a stationary front, extends from 28N61W to 26N52W. A low pressure system centered north of the area combined with the broad high that prevails elsewhere are generating enough pressure gradient to support moderate southwesterly winds east of 30W. Over the next 24 hours an upper trough will develop near the Bahamas supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA