000 AXNT20 KNHC 241726 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 126 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 24/1200 UTC a 1005 mb surface low is centered N of the Bahamas near 29.5N76.5W. The pressure gradient between this low and a high to the east is expected to generate gale force southeast winds from 28N to 31N between 72W and 75W, with seas to 13 ft. The low is forecast to quickly lift northward, which will allow gale force winds to subside over the forecast waters this evening. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC and under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 for further details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone in western Africa at 08N13W to 03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 03N20W to 02S39W to the coast of Brazil in South America near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 05N between 11W and 18W and also from 03S to 03N between 37W and 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 24/1200 UTC a cold front extends over Gulf of Mexico from near Ft Myers Florida at 27N82.5W to 23N86W to 20N95W to the coast of Mexico adjacent to the Bay of Campeche near 18.5N95W. No deep convection is associated with the front over the Gulf of Mexico. Only a narrow band of shallow cloudiness attends the front. Broken to overcast stratocumulus ceilings covered the Gulf to the lee of the front N of 26N E of 88W. Moderate to Fresh N to NE winds are prevalent over the Gulf to the N of the front, with moderate W winds ahead of the front over the SE Gulf. An upper level trough is aligned with the Florida Peninsula. Strong subsidence to the west of the trough covers the entire Gulf. The cold front will exit to the SE of the Gulf by Tuesday morning. A 1013 Mb high will quickly shift eastward over the central Gulf on Tuesday and set up moderate to fresh SE to S return flow over the Western Gulf by Tuesday evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 mb low is centered just off the coast of N Colombia near 11.5N73.5W. A surface trough extends southward into the Caribbean from Western Cuba to near 20N82W. Moderate west winds are noted in the vicinity of the trough over the Caribbean west of 82W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are seen over the caribbean east of the trough. An upper- level trough extends southward from Western Cuba over the Western Caribbean to just N of Panama. Upper-level subsidence west of the trough and broad ridging east of the trough is suppressing convection over the Caribbean, except for in the vicinity of Hispaniola. ...HISPANIOLA... The upper-level trough moving eastward from Cuba is producing upper-level divergence over Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected over the island through tonight, then the trough will swing to the NE and allow the atmosphere to stabilize on Tuesday. Expect the heaviest convection to favor the afternoon and evening hours, during the time of maximum heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough curves SSE from a surface low centered near 29.5N76.5W to the central coast of Cuba. Low-level convergence east of the trough is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north-northwestward from Hispaniola over the far SE Bahamas to east of Florida between 70W and 75W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over and east of the Bahamas to lift NE of the discussion area. A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N60W. The high is expected to dissipate during the next 24 hours. The tail end of a dissipating cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N29W to 29N32W. No organized convection is associated with this feature. A 1019 mb high is centered just N of the Canary Islands near 30N17W. A large upper- level low remains centered over the E Atlantic near 33N31W. Upper- level divergence on the east side of the low is producing isolated thunderstorms in the SE quadrant of the low up to 600 nm SE of the low center. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy