000 AXNT20 KNHC 231735 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 135 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A surface low currently centered over southeast Gulf near 24N82W will traverse S Florida to north of the Bahamas in 24 hours. The pressure gradient between this low and a high to the east will result in gale-force southeast winds by early Monday through early Tuesday north of 30N between 73W-74W. Seas will range between 10-12 ft in this area. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC and under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 for further details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast from 10N15W to 03N28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 03N28W to the South American coast near 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-07N between 14W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends over the western Gulf waters from 30N88W to 24N98W. Isolated showers are observed along the front. A surface ridge is building in the wake of the front. The front will continue moving southeast during the next 24 hours. A 1009 mb surface low is centered over the southeast Gulf near 24N82W. A surface trough extends from 27N83W to the low to 23N82W. Isolated persistent showers prevail with this low extending from 24N-27N and east of 83W. This low is expected to move northeast during the next 24 hours entering the western Atlantic. Shower activity will continue over the southeast Gulf and southern tip of Florida. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds over the northwest portion of the basin north of the front while variable gentle winds prevail elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-level trough extends in diagonal across the northern Caribbean from the east Gulf of Mexico. Cloudiness and isolated moderate convection is observed north of 16N and east of 77W, with strongest activity affecting the waters south of Hispaniola and Jamaica. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across most of the basin east of 80W while light to gentle variable winds prevail west of 80W. Expect for convection to remain over the northern portion of the basin as another upper- level trough enters the west Caribbean and a diffluent flow prevails to the east of it. ...HISPANIOLA... Cloudiness and scattered showers are observed across the island, with strongest activity prevailing over the coastal waters to the south. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Gale-force winds will develop across the western Atlantic. PLease refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft prevails from 70W-80W supporting scattered showers in this area. To the east, a 1020 mb surface high is centered near 29N67W. Another 1020 mb surface high is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 30N20W. With these, surface ridging prevails across most of the basin. Expect over the next 24 hours for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to persist over the Bahamas as a surface low enters the region from the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA