000 AXNT20 KNHC 230001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 801 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast from 11N16W to 05N18W to 03N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 03N21W to 01N28W to 01S33W to the coast of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 03N to 07N E of 21W and from 07S to 03N W of 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface low pressure is across the basin ahead of a cold front to enter the NW Gulf waters tonight. In the middle levels, a cyclonic circulation centered N of the Yucatan Peninsula near 24N87W reflects at the surface as a 1010 mb center of low pressure near 24N86W from which a surface trough extends from 28N84W to the low to 21N84W. A middle to upper level diffluent environment just east of the low along with moisture inflow from the Caribbean to the SE basin support scattered heavy showers and tstms S of 27N E of 86W, including the Florida Straits. Water vapor and CIRA LPW imagery show dry air across the remainder basin, which is favoring fair weather conditions. Gentle to light variable winds cover the Gulf, however building high pressure behind the cold front will support fresh to strong N winds NW of the front starting near 0600 UTC Sunday. These winds are forecast to increase to near gale force on Sunday afternoon while the front moves across the Florida Panhandle SW to the NE coast of Mexico. Scattered to isolated showers are expected in the vicinity of the front as it crosses the basin through Monday night. The low in the SE basin will move E-NE in the next 24 hours, thus allowing the continuation of showers across S Florida and the Straits. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level diffluent environment across the NW Caribbean along with abundant low level moisture across the basin support scattered heavy showers and tstms along northern Cuba and isolated showers across the Island coastal waters. To the SE of this area of diffluence, a middle level short-wave trough support showers across Hispaniola and adjacent waters, including the Windward and the Mona Passage as well as Jamaica. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are in the central basin from 14N to 17N between 70W and 76W. Water vapor imagery show very dry air aloft, which in part supports fair weather across the remainder Caribbean. Latest scatterometer data show fresh winds N and S of Jamaica while gentle to moderate winds dominate elsewhere...strongest being along the northern Caribbean. Showers across the NW and north- central Caribbean will continue through Monday, extending to Puerto Rico Sunday night through Tuesday. Otherwise, the tail of a cold front is forecast to reach NW Caribbean waters Monday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Abundant low level moisture across the northern Caribbean and a middle level short-wave trough support showers across Hispaniola and adjacent waters, including the Windward and the Mona Passage. Heavy showers will continue over the remainder weekend through Monday morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and isolated tstms are across the Straits of Florida and the Grand Bahama Bank ahead of a middle area of diffluent flow over the NW Caribbean. Over the central basin, the tail of a dissipating cold front extends from 30N41W to 27N48W. Ahead of it, the remnants of a dissipating stationary front are analyzed as a surface trough from 31N36W to 26N40W to 23N43W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm either side of these boundaries. Surface high pressure dominate the remainder basin W and E of the cold front. A cold front will move across Florida Monday and into the SW Atlc waters Mon night where it will dissipate Tue. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos