000 AXNT20 KNHC 191039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 639 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 996 mb surface low is centered near 31N41W. A surface trough extends from 30N33W to 25N34W to 19N41W. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 28N between 31W-43W. This activity has become better organized since yesterday. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near-gale force winds prevailing mostly over the southern semicircle of the low center north of 28N between 40W-46W. This system still has the opportunity to become a subtropical cyclone during the next day or so before it becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone on Thursday. Due to this, this system has a medium chance for tropical formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WHO headers TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast from 05N10W to 00N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 00N17W to the South American coast near 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and south of these boundaries between 10W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 31N72W producing surface ridging that reaches the Gulf of Mexico along 30N. A surface trough was analyzed over the western Gulf from 28N95W to 24N95W. Another trough extends along the Yucatan Peninsula's coast from 22N89W to 19N91W. Cloudiness and scattered moderate convection are present near the troughs and over the west and southern portions of the basin. This activity is supported by a diffluent flow aloft just east of an upper-level trough/low that extends its axis along 97W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin with locally fresh easterly winds prevailing south of 24N. Expect a similar weather pattern during the next 24 hours as the upper- level low continues moving east across the western Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper-level trough/low that prevails over the western Gulf of Mexico is also enhancing convection across the western Caribbean as a diffluent flow prevails west of 77W. This activity is affecting portions of the Yucatan Channel, Central America, Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of an upper-level ridge with axis along 70W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh tradewinds across the basin with the strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Cloudiness prevails across the island at this time. Expect over the next 24 hours for scattered showers to advect over the island from the east with the tradewind flow. Convection will also form due to local instability. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 31N72W, with its ridge extending to 57W. A 996 mb surface low is centered over the central Atlantic near 31N42W. Please refer to the Special Features section above for more details. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Expect over the next 24 hours for the Special Feature's low to move northeast away from the area. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA