000 AXNT20 KNHC 190547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 997 mb surface low is centered near 31N42W. A surface trough extends from 31N34W to 23N34W to 17N41W. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 28N between 32W-44W. This activity has become better organized since yesterday. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near-gale winds prevailing mostly to the west of the low center north of 26N between 42W-49W. This system still has the opportunity to become a subtropical cyclone during the next day or so before it becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone on Thursday. Due to this, this system has a medium chance for tropical formation during the next 48 hours. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast from 07N12W to 03N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 03N15W to the South American coast near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and south of the ITCZ between 10W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 31N70W producing surface ridging reaching the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough was analyzed over the eastern Gulf from 28N84W to 24N86W. Another trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula at this time. The cloudiness and scattered convection present over the southern half of the basin is supported by upper-level diffluence generated to the east of an upper-level trough/low that prevails over eastern Mexico. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin with locally fresh easterly winds prevailing south of 24N. Expect a similar weather pattern during the next 24 hours as the upper-level low will move east across the western Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper-level trough/low that prevails over the western Gulf of Mexico is also enhancing convection across the western Caribbean as a diffluent flow prevails west of 77W. This activity is affecting portions of the Yucatan Channel, Central America, west and central Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of an upper-level ridge with axis along 70W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh tradewinds across the basin with the strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Cloudiness and isolated showers prevail across the island. Expect over the next 24 hours for scattered showers to advect over the island from the east with the tradewind flow. Convection will also form due to local instability. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 31N70W. Its ridge extends to 53W. A 997 mb surface low is centered over the central Atlantic near 31N42W. Please refer to the Special Features section above for more details. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Expect over the next 24 hours for the Special Feature's low to move northeast. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA