000 AXNT20 KNHC 182337 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 737 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends across the western Africa coast from 07N11W to 04N14W to 02N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 01N19W to 01N30W to the South American coast near 02S45W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is south of the axis from 1N-7S between 10W-20W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of the axis between 20W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N70W producing surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. An embedded surface trough is over the SE Gulf from 27N85W to 23N87W. Scattered showers are from 25N-27N between 83W-88W. 10-20 kt E to SE flow is over the Gulf with strongest winds over the Straits of Florida. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over NE Mexico near 22N99W. Upper level diffluence E of the low is producing scattered moderate convection over the W Gulf from 19N-30N between 93W-96W. Expect over the next 24 hours for little change over the surface pattern, while in the upper levels the low over NE Mexico will drift E to the W Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is inland over N Colombia, and along the coast of Panama. Scattered moderate convection is over N Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, the NW Caribbean, Cuba, and Jamaica. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola, S of Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Caribbean Sea with axis along 70W. Upper level moisture is over the entire Caribbean. Broken high clouds covers the NW Caribbean. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers are over the island. Expect over the next 24 hours for more scattered showers to advect over the island from the east with the tradewind flow. Also expect scattered moderate convection to also form due to local instability. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N70W. A 995 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 31N43W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 30N-35N between 35W-43W. 25-30 kt winds are within 360 nm of the W semicircle of the low. A surface trough, the remnants of a cold front, extends from 31N34W to 25N34W to 19N40W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of the trough. Further E, scattered showers are noted over the Canary Islands. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low is centered over the surface low resulting in low upper level pressure N of 20N between 30W-60W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface low to drift E to 32N41W with convection. Also expect the Atlantic trough to drift E to 30W with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa