000 AXNT20 KNHC 171720 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A storm low is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N46W. Over forecast waters, gale force winds are N of 29N between 45W- 53W. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale this evening. Please refer to the high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near 06N11W and continues to 03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 03N20W to 00N35W to 1S48W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the Monsoon Trough from 03N-05N between 08W- 15W. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 01S-04N between 37W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N68W producing surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. 10-20 kt E to SE flow is over the Gulf with strongest winds over the Straits of Florida. An embedded surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N94W to 17N93W. The trough is void of precipitation. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows isolated showers over the SE Gulf to include the Straits of Florida. More scattered showers are inland over S Louisiana, and Along the Texas coast W of 95W. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 80W. Upper level moisture is over most of the Gulf. Expect over the next 24 hours for showers to increase over the Straits of Florida, and along the Texas coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest winds over the Gulf of Honduras, and the strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is inland over NW Colombia, and along the coast of Panama. Scattered showers are over most of the Caribbean except over the NW Caribbean near the Cayman Islands where mostly fair weather is noted. Radar imagery confirms scattered showers over and around Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland E Nicaragua, and Belize. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Caribbean Sea with axis along 75W. Broken high clouds covers the central and E Caribbean. Strong subsidence is over portions of the NW Caribbean. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers are over the island. Expect over the next 24 hours for more scattered showers to advect over the island from the east with the tradewind flow. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N68W. A storm low is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N46W. See above. An associated cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N37W to 23N40W to 17N50W to 17N60W. Widely scattered moderate convection is N of 26N between 34W-37W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the remainder of the front. A small 1010 mb low is centered S of the Canary Islands near 27N14W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low is centered directly over the storm low resulting in low upper level pressure N of 20N between 30W-60W. Expect the over the next 24 hours for the storm low surface center to drift SE to 32N44W with convection. Also expect the Atlantic front to drift E to 35W and produce convection over the Atlantic N of 20N between 30W-35W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa