000 AXNT20 KNHC 160603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 203 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Strong high pressure over the west Atlantic behind a cold front extending from 30N51W to 25N60W to 24N70W is supporting near to gale force winds N of 30N within 180 nm E of the front with seas to 11 ft. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale by Sunday night. Please refer to the high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near 06N11W and continues to 03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 03N20W to 02N40W to 1N50W. Isolated showers are within 210 nm either side of the ITCZ and S of the Monsoon Trough. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface high pressure anchored by a 1030 mb high over NW Atlc waters continue to extend a ridge axis SW across the Florida peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. This is supporting moderate to fresh easterly-southeasterly flow across the basin according to latest surface and scatterometer data. Water vapor imagery show middle to upper level dry air across almost the entire basin and a short-wave trough on the northeast gulf. A thermal trough is in the Yucatan peninsula, however no showers are associated with it at the time. No major changes are expected through Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the west Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia supports fresh to near gale-force winds from 10N to 15N between 69W and 78W. This synoptic pattern is expected to continue through Monday. Water Vapor and CIRA LPW imagery continue to show very stable conditions over the western Caribbean while SW winds aloft advects moisture from South America to the eastern basin. Moisture is also being advected from the tropical Atlc waters to the NE Caribbean by SE flow associated with an area of low pressure in the Central Atlc waters. All this moisture may induce the development of showers mainly over the NE basin where the moisture is converging. Shower activity for this region and Hispaniola is expected through Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Low and upper level dry air is across the majority of the Island supporting fair weather tonight. Some cloudiness are observed in the SE portion of Hispaniola due to middle level moisture being advected by SW flow. This moisture along with trailing moisture associated with the passage of a cold front to the north will support the development of showers over the Island and adjacent waters today and possibly Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1002 mb center of low pressure N of the area near 34N50W and continues along 30N51W to 25N60W to 24N70W. Strong pressure behind the front tightens the gradient and support near to gale force winds N of 30N. See the special features section for further details. Otherwise, a stationary front continues to weaken over NE Atlc waters from 30N23W to 24N30W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos