000 AXNT20 KNHC 141747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Low pressure will develop over the southwest north Atlantic near 28N58W by tonight and then deepen over this weekend as it moves northeast, merging with a larger system over the central Atlantic on Saturday. A cold front will develop and extend SW from the low Saturday into Saturday night. Strong high pressure behind the front will support a tight pressure gradient that will produce gale force winds of 35 kt between 52W-56W and beginning 16/0000 UTC Saturday evening. Please refer to the high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near 06N11W to 02N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 02N18W to 01S30W to 03S41W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of the Monsoon Trough from 00N-06N between 00W- 06W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 02S-03N between 18W-27W, and from 01N-04N between 29W-35W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03S-02N between 38W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico with 10-15 kt easterly flow. An embedded surface trough is over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 26N87W to 22N87W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough moving W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are along the coast of Louisiana. In the upper levels, a small trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico with axis along 93W. Upper level diffluence E of the trough is enhancing the convection over the SE Gulf. Expect over the next 24 hours for convection over the SE Gulf to move to the central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest winds over the Leeward Islands, and the strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. A tail end of a surface trough reaches the Leeward Islands near 18N64W. Another surface trough is just N of Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is inland over N Colombia and Venezuela. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over W Panama, Costa Rica, E Nicaragua, Honduras, and S Guatemala. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Caribbean Sea. Upper level moisture is over N Colombia and Venezuela. Strong subsidence is over the NW Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for the eastern and central Caribbean to have additional scattered showers. ...HISPANIOLA... After a dry start today, expect low level moisture and showers to increase as a trough reaches the northern portion of Hispaniola by this afternoon. Winds will increase out of the northeast later on Saturday as strong high pressure builds north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low pressure of 1012 mb resides near 25N68W with a surface trough that extends from the low to 23N66W to S of the Turks and Caicos near 21N73W. A stationary front extends from 24N52W to 27N60W, then transitions to an occluded front from 28N65W to 25N70W. Another surface trough extends south front the triple point of the fronts near 28N65W to 24N62W to 18N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are N of 24N between 50W-67W. Fresh to strong east to northeast winds are occurring north of the occluded front. A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N28W and extends to 22N36W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. High pressure centered near 36N13W covers the remainder of the eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours new low pressure will develop to the northeast of the current low, and the current low will become absorbed by the new low as the entire system will move northeast over the central Atlantic early this weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany this broad system. On Saturday evening, gale force winds will develop behind a cold front that will extend southwest from the low. Please refer to the special features section for more details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa