000 AXNT20 KNHC 141045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 645 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Low pressure will develop over the southwest north Atlantic near 28N60W by tonight and then deepen over this weekend as it moves northeast, merging with a larger system over the central Atlantic on Saturday. A cold front will develop and extend SW from the low Saturday into Saturday night. Strong high pressure behind the front will support a tight pressure gradient that will produce gale force winds to 40 kt N of 29N and W of the front beginning 0600 UTC Sunday morning. Please refer to the high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near 11N15W to 02N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 02N21W to 01N30W to 02S44W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 00N to 05N across the entire basin. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure northeast of the area extends across the region this morning supporting moderate to fresh winds over the majority of the Gulf basin, except gentle winds over the north central Gulf underneath the ridge axis. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are being supported by upper level diffluence over the southwestern Gulf from 21N to 25N W of 94W. Additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the southeastern Gulf from 23N to 27N between 84W and 89W. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will increase by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf as stronger high pressure builds northeast of the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the western Caribbean supports moderate to fresh northeast to east winds over the western and central Caribbean, except fresh to strong winds within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, the Lee of Cuba, and the Windward Passage. Low pressure to the north of the eastern Caribbean is producing a weak pressure pattern across the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds prevailing. The current strong winds will decrease slightly during the day today, and then increase once again tonight. Southwesterly flow aloft will draw moisture across the eastern Caribbean starting today, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean starting today and lasting into the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... After a dry start today, expect low level moisture and showers to increase as a trough reaches the northern portion of Hispaniola by this afternoon. Winds will increase out of the northeast later on Saturday as strong high pressure builds north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low pressure of 1010 mb resides near 25N68W with a surface trough that extends from the low to 22N68W to the Turks and Caicos near 21N74W. A stationary front extends from 25N52W to 27N66W, then transitions to an occluded front to 27N69W to 25N70W. Another surface trough extends south front the triple point of the fronts near 27N66W to 23N63W to 18N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 24N to 29N between 62W and 69W, and from 22N to 30N between 52W and 61W. Fresh to strong east to northeast winds are occurring north of the occluded front. A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N29W and extends to 27N35W to 24N48W. No significant convection is noted with this front over our area. High pressure centered near 33N13W covers the remainder of the eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours new low pressure will develop to the northeast of the current low, and the current low will become absorbed by the new low as the entire system moves northeast over the central Atlantic early this weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany this broad system. On Saturday night, gale force winds will develop behind a cold front that will extend southwest from the low. Please refer to the special features section for more details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto