000 AXNT20 KNHC 121738 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 138 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near 09N13W to 03N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 03N22W to 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is near the coast of South America south of the Equator west of 40W, and south of 04N west of 48W. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south to the Equator to about 06S between 22W and 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has entered the northwest Gulf and extends from SE Louisiana to the far south Texas near 27N98W. Isolated showers are associated with the front over the NW Gulf. This front is expected to dissipate later today. A surface trough is just west of the Florida west coast accompanied by isolated showers. High pressure dominates the rest of the basin, as a ridge axis extends westward across the northeast Gulf from high pressure over the western Atlantic. The most recent scatterometer data showed fresh to locally strong NE-E winds just and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. These winds are associated with a thermal trough. This trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, then move westward into the SW Gulf overnight where it will dissipate each morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the region supports moderate to fresh easterly trades over the majority of the Caribbean Sea. The only exceptions are fresh to locally strong winds along the northwestern coast of Colombia, in the Lee of Cuba, and the Windward Passage. The most recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds. A surface trough extends from the Atlantic and across the Mona Passage. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are mainly east of the trough axis. The San Juan Doppler Radar shows the convective activity related to this trough. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted across the basin. The above mentioned trough is helping to induce convection over Puerto Rico, and is also helping to disrupt the trade wind flow over the northeastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage each night through Friday. Pulsing strong winds are forecast near the coast of Colombia at night through Sunday. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... A typical weather pattern for this time of the year will prevail across the island over the next couple of days, with mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms due to local effects. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A low-level vort max or "screaming eagle" is noted on satellite imagery rapidly moving westward across the Straits of Florida and just north of Matanzas Cuba accompanying by some shower activity. Moderate to fresh NE winds across the NW Bahamas and regional waters are aslo transporting some shower activity across south Florida and the Florida Keys. A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N43W and extends to 26N53W where it transitions to a stationary front to a 1014 mb low pressure located near 26N67W. A trough extends from the low center to the Mona Passage. A recent scatterometer pass shows very well the cyclonic circulation associated with the low center as well as strong to minimal gale force winds within about 180 nm on the northern semicircle of low. A gale warning is in effect for this region. Fresh to strong winds are also noted between the low and a 1028 mb high pressure located north of area near 37N62W covering roughly the Atlantic ocean between 60W and 67W. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is on the east side of the low/trough within about 60 nm of a line from 28N66W to 26N64W to 26N64W. The low is forecast to drift westward to a position near 25N68W by early Thursday morning. A ridge dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic with a 1025 mb high near 27N33W, and another high center of 1022 mb between the Madeira and the Canary Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR