000 AXNT20 KNHC 120035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 835 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from Sierra Leone at 08N12W to 01N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 01N22W to 02S30W to Brazil near 02S44W. Widely scattered moderate convection is 3S-3N between 00W-02W, and from 03S-04N between 14W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is over south central Texas from 33N94W to 29N100W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm SE of the front, reaching the coast between Corpus Christi and Houston. Elsewhere, a 1025 mb high is centered over Georgia near 33N82W. 10-20 kt E to SE surface return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest winds over the Straits of Florida, and along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Radar imagery shows isolated showers over S Florida and surrounding waters moving W. In the upper levels, a trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico with axis along 95W. Upper level moisture is over Texas and the NW Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the remainder of the Gulf. Expect over the next 24 hours for continued convection over Texas, and the far NW Gulf. Expect little change over the remainder of the Gulf for the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest winds just S of Cuba, and the strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. A surface trough extends from 20N66W to Puerto Rico to the E Caribbean near 14N66W producing scattered showers. Radar imagery shows the showers reaching the Virgin Islands. Similar showers are over all of the Leeward Islands, and Windward Islands. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over N Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Caribbean Sea. Upper level moisture is over N Colombia and Venezuela. Strong subsidence is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for the E Caribbean to continue to have scattered showers due to the surface trough. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to the surface trough. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A quasi-stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N51W to 29N60W to E of the Bahamas near 27N72W. Scattered showers prevail within 120 nm of the front. Further south, 1013 mb low is centered near 25N65W. A surface trough extends S from the low to N of Puerto Rico near 20N66W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. A 1023 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 30N42W. Another surface trough is W of the Cape Verde Islands from 31N18W to 27N27W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is over the E Atlantic near 30N68W. An upper level trough is N of 20N between 20W-35W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the W Atlantic front to remain quasi-stationary with continued scattered showers. Also expect the W Atlantic trough to drift W towards the Bahamas with continued scattered showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa