000 AXNT20 KNHC 111710 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 110 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from Sierra Leone on the African coast at 08N12W to 06N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 06N15W to 03S33W to the South American coast near 01S46W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 01S to 06N between 16W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 01N between 36W and 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered over the western Atlantic ridges west- southwestward along the Northern Gulf Coast. Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds are observed south of the ridge across most of the gulf basin this morning, except for light winds near a weak surface trough in the vicinity of the Florida Big Bend. Fresh to strong winds are evident over the SE Gulf, in the vicinity of a surface trough over the central Bay of Campeche, and over the Straits of Florida. Deep layer ridging extends northeastward over the Gulf from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Florida Big Bend. The subsident environment beneath the ridge will inhibit convection over the Gulf through Wednesday. The ridge to the north will keep the front over Texas at bay and maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the Gulf. A thermal trough is expected to form each afternoon over the Yucatan peninsula, then move west over the bay of Campeche each day during the overnight hours. Fresh to strong winds can be expected each night along the NW coast of the Yucatan as the trough emerges from the peninsula. Fresh to strong winds over the Straits of Florida will slacken tonight through Thursday as the ridge to the north weakens in response to low pressure moving eastward over the northeastern United States. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough of low pressure extending northward from 14N70W through the Mona Passage into the Atlantic is weakening the ridge to the north of the Caribbean. Winds across the basin are generally moderate, except for fresh to strong winds off the NW Colombia coast and to the lee of the Mona and Windward passages. This general pattern will continue for the next couple of days as developing low pressure within the trough weakens the ridge and the tighter pressure gradient on the west side of the trough generates gap winds through the Windward Passage and south of Cuba. A broad upper-level trough extends southward over the Caribbean from Hispaniola. Convergent flow in the vicinity of the trough will inhibit convection through Wednesday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Convergent low-level flow associated with a surface trough that currently extends northward through the Mona Passage has shifted to the east of Hispaniola. This, combined with convergent upper- level winds will maintain a relatively dry trade-wind pattern for the next couple of days with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers prevailing. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends WSW from 32N50W to 27N67W, then continues as a weakening stationary front to near 26N71W. A surface trough reaches north from the Mona Passage to 24N65W to 27N65W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 28N to 32N between 59W and 66W. High pressure of 1024 mb centered near 32N43W resides over the central Atlantic. A weakening surface trough extends SW from 32N19W to 26N27W. No significant convection is associated with this trough. Over the next 24 hours showers and thunderstorms will continue along and north of the frontal boundary as the front transitions into a frontal trough by Tuesday night, then develops into a broad area of low pressure on Wednesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy