000 AXNT20 KNHC 111004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 604 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 03N20W to the South American coast near 04S39W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are S of 03N and E of 08W and from 01N to 06N between 15W and 20W. Isolated moderate convection is south of 02N between 37W and 47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered over the western Atlantic extends westward across the northern gulf coast, supporting moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds across most of the gulf basin this morning, except fresh to strong winds over the SE Gulf and in the vicinity of a surface trough over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers are over the eastern gulf in low level moisture. Otherwise, fair weather dominates the gulf basin. Over the next 24 hours a cold front will approach the northwestern gulf and will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity along the Texas coast and possibly the nearby offshore waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the region supports moderate to fresh easterly trades over the majority of the Caribbean basin this morning. The only exception is locally strong winds along the northwestern coast of Colombia. Scattered showers cover the Greater Antilles, with numerous showers in the vicinity of the southern portion of a surface trough that extends from the Atlantic, across Puerto Rico, to near 17N67W. Over the next 48 hours the surface trough will be absorbed by a developing broad area of low pressure north of the eastern Caribbean. This will help to disrupt the trade wind flow over the northeastern Caribbean. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are across the island this morning as enhanced moisture associated with a stationary front to the north continues to spread southwest over the area. This shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through at least this evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N57W to 28N64W, then transitions to a warm front to near 24N71W. A surface trough lies just east of the stationary front with an axis from 29N58W to 25N61W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N to 31N between 58W and 68W. Another surface trough extends from 23N63W southwestward across Puerto Rico. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of either side of the trough axis. High pressure of 1024 mb centered near 35N42W dominates the central Atlantic. A surface trough extends from 31N22W to 25N29W. No significant convection is noted. Over the next 24 hours showers and thunderstorms will continue near the stationary and warm front as the front transitions to a frontal trough through Tuesday, then develops into a broad area of low pressure on Wednesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto